Tehnički vjesnik, Vol. 23 No. 2, 2016.
Pregledni rad
https://doi.org/10.17559/TV-20150314105216
Influencing factor analysis and displacement prediction in reservoir landslides − a case study of Three Gorges Reservoir (China)
Faming Huang
; Geological Survey Institution of China University of Geosciences, Lumo Road 388, Hongshan District, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, P. R. China
Kunlong Yin
; Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Lumo Road 388, Hongshan District, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, P. R. China
Tao He
; College of Oujiang of Wenzhou University, 325035, Wenzhou, P. R. China
Chao Zhou
; Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Lumo Road 388, Hongshan District, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, P. R. China
Jun Zhang
; Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Lumo Road 388, Hongshan District, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, P. R. China
Sažetak
The developmental tendencies of cumulative displacement time series associated with reservoir landslides influenced by large water reservoirs must be effectively predicted. However, traditional methods do not encompass the dynamic response relationships between landslide deformation and its influencing factors. Therefore, a new approach based on the exponential smoothing (ES) and multivariate extreme learning machine methods was introduced to reveal the influencing factors of landslide deformation and to forecast landslide displacement values. First, the influencing factors of reservoir landslide deformation were analysed. Second, the ES method was used to predict the trend term displacement and obtain the periodic term displacement by determining the trend term from the cumulative displacement. Next, multivariate influencing factors were analysed to explain the periodic term displacement. Then, an extreme learning machine (ELM) model was established to predict the periodic term displacement based on the multivariable analysis of influencing factors. Finally, cumulative displacement prediction values were obtained by adding the trend and periodic displacement prediction values. The Bazimen and Baishuihe landslides in Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) were selected as case studies. The proposed ES-multivariate ELM (ES-MELM) model was compared to the ES-univariate ELM (ES-ELM) model. The results show that reservoir landslide deformation is mainly influenced by periodic reservoir water level fluctuations and heavy rainfall. Additionally, the proposed model yields more accurate predictions than the ES-ELM model.
Ključne riječi
displacement prediction; exponential smoothing; Extreme Learning Machine; multivariate influencing factors; reservoir landslide; Three Gorges Reservoir
Hrčak ID:
156863
URI
Datum izdavanja:
27.4.2016.
Posjeta: 2.317 *