Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.2478/otmcj-2018-0026
Method for Base Estimation of Construction Time for Linear Projects in Front-end Project Phases
Ivana Burcar Dunovic
; Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.
Kristijan Robert Prebanić
; Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.
Pavao Durrigl
; Strabag d.o.o.
Sažetak
Even though horizontally linear projects have
low complexity schedules, they are still not successful in
meeting planned time. The deadlines are mostly based
on estimations done in front-end project development when
limited data are available. Early time estimation models
in literature rely on few variables and, almost in all cases,
one of them is the estimated cost. Early cost estimations
can significantly deviate from actual costs and thus lead to
unreliable time estimation. Time estimation models based
on neural network and other alternative methods require
databases and software, which complicates the process of
time estimation. The purpose of this paper is to bridge the
gap of scarce time estimation models and unreliable time
estimates by developing a new method for time estimation.
This research has been done on one large sewer system
project. The case study shows how to extract several continuous
activities for a pipeline project chosen from a sewer
system. Moreover, a new algorithm for the calculation of
project duration is devised based on the existing equation
related to the linear scheduling method, and this algorithm
works with continuous activities. The new method for construction
time estimation is based on the extraction of linear
continuous activities, usage of the algorithm for identification
of minimal buffer between activities, and calculation of
the project duration. To verify the algorithm, this method is
used on another pipeline project from a sewer system. The
limitation is that this method can be used only for base estimation.
Further research needs to be done to include uncertainties
and risks in the method.
Ključne riječi
construction time estimation; linear projects; method; algorithm
Hrčak ID:
255125
URI
Datum izdavanja:
21.3.2021.
Posjeta: 588 *