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	<front>
		<journal-meta>
			<journal-id/>
			<journal-title-group>
				<journal-title xml:lang="en">Tourism and Hospitality Management </journal-title>
			</journal-title-group>
			<issn pub-type="ppub">1330-7533</issn>
			<issn pub-type="epub">1847-3377</issn>
			<publisher>
				<publisher-name xml:lang="hr">Sveučilište u Rijeci, Fakultet za menadžment u turizmu
					i ugostiteljstvu, Opatija</publisher-name>
				<publisher-name xml:lang="en">University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and
					Hospitality Management, Opatija</publisher-name>
				<publisher-loc>Naselje Ika, Primorska 42, PP 97, 51410 Opatija <email
						xlink:href="thm@fthm.hr">thm@fthm.hr</email>
					<ext-link xlink:href="http://thm.fthm.hr/">http://thm.fthm.hr/</ext-link>
				</publisher-loc>
			</publisher>
		</journal-meta>
		<article-meta>
			<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20867/thm.28.3.9</article-id>
			<article-categories>
				<subj-group subj-group-type="heading" xml:lang="hr">
					<subject>Originalni znanstveni rad</subject>
				</subj-group>
				<subj-group subj-group-type="heading" xml:lang="en">
					<subject>Original scientific paper</subject>
				</subj-group>
			</article-categories>
			<title-group>
				<article-title xml:lang="en"><bold>THE EFFECT OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON
						TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: A STUDY OF VIETNAM FOR THE
						INTERVAL 1990-2020.</bold></article-title>
			</title-group>
			<contrib-group>
				<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
					<name>
						<surname>Phuong Thao Hoang</surname>
						<given-names>Thi</given-names>
					</name>
					<email xlink:href="gsr03k@pte.hu">gsr03k@pte.hu</email>
					<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
				</contrib>

				<aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>
					<institution xml:lang="en">Yersin University, Dalat, Vietnam Tourism department </institution>
					<addr-line>27 Ton That Tung, Dalat, Lam Dong, Vietnam </addr-line></aff>
			</contrib-group>
			<pub-date>
				<month>01</month>
				<year>2023</year>
			</pub-date>
			<volume>28</volume>
			<issue>3</issue>
			<fpage>641</fpage>
			<lpage>659</lpage>
			<history>
				<date date-type="received">
					<day>19</day>
					<month>09</month>
					<year>2021</year>
				</date>
				<date date-type="revised">
					<day>17</day>
					<month>11</month>
					<year>2021</year>
				</date>
				<date date-type="revised">
					<day>27</day>
					<month>04</month>
					<year>2022 </year>
				</date>
				<date date-type="revised">
					<day>02</day>
					<month>06</month>
					<year>2022 </year>
				</date>
				<date>
					<day>28</day>
					<month>06</month>
					<year>2022</year>
				</date>
			</history>
			<permissions>
				<license license-type="open-access">
					<license-p>CC BY-NC-SA 4.0</license-p>
				</license>
				<license license-type="open-access" xml:lang="hr">
					<license-p>Puni tekst radova ovog časopisa besplatno se smije koristiti za
						osobne, edukacijske ili istraživačke svrhe uz poštivanje autorskih prava
						autora i izdavača. Radovi su dostupni pod uvjetima licence CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
						International. Tourism and hospitality management je plavi Sherpa/RoMEO
						časopis.</license-p>
				</license>
				<license license-type="open-access" xml:lang="en">
					<license-p>The papers can be used for personal, scientific, educational and
						research purposes, provided that the credit is given. The papers are
						licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 International license. Tourism and
						hospitality management is a Sherpa/RoMEO blue journal. </license-p>
				</license>
			</permissions>
			<abstract>
				<p>Purpose: The primary study objective is to determine the interaction between
					economic, financial, and tourism development in Vietnam for the 1990-2020
					intervals.</p>
				<p>Design:This study is conducted through a combination of qualitative and
					quantitative methods using secondary data from WorldBank, Ourworldindata, and
					the Vietnam Bureau of Statistics.</p>
				<p>Methodology: The ARDL model is a statistically more robust approach for
					cointegration testing; then the ECM model was used to test for short-term
					effects and finally the Granger test for causality between the observed
					variables.</p>
				<p>Findings: Investigating the vital internal force that promotes tourism
					development reveals that finance and economic growth are crucially crucial
					during the 31-year study period. To illustrate, the economic and financial
					contribution to the positive change of tourism is up to 30.4% and 18.1%,
					respectively. Excitedly, the Granger test demonstrates a one-way causal
					relationship between economic growth and tourism development, tourism
					development, and finance development, and finance development and economic
					growth. In other words, it is a circle that demonstrates a consistently positive
					impact from tourism development to finance development, from finance development
					to economic growth, and finally, from economic growth to tourism
					development.</p>
				<p>The originality of the research: This paper highlights the role and impact level
					of the economic and financial sector on the tourism industry of a new Asian
					tiger and can be considered as the first study on Vietnam. The findings
					investigate how the economy functioned in the past and support policymakers in
					establishing future development policies, particularly in post-pandemic
					recovery.</p>
			</abstract>
			<kwd-group xml:lang="en">
				<kwd>ARDL</kwd>
				<kwd>Finance</kwd>
				<kwd>Tourism</kwd>
				<kwd>The growth</kwd>
				<kwd>Variance decomposition</kwd>
				<kwd>Vietnam</kwd>
			</kwd-group>
		</article-meta>
	</front>
	<body>
		<sec>
			<label>INTRODUCTION</label>
			<p>More recently, the number of tourists and tourism revenue increase continuously have
				positively changed the economic environment of both emerging and advanced economies
					(<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="
				Hartwell">Hartwell et al. 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Kay">Kay
					Smith and Diekmann 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Khan">Khan et
					al.2021a,c</xref>). Specifically, in this seventh consecutive year, trade
				deficits in countries have fallen sharply because tourism exports have grown faster
				than commodity exports (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Chen">Chen and Petrick
					2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Terblanche">Terblanche and Taljaard
					2018</xref>).</p>
			<p>Previous studies have been conducted to determine the extent to which tourism
				influences or contributes to a country's gross national income or overall economic
				development (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Naidoo">Naidoo and Sharpley 2016</xref>;
					<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Khan">Khan et al. 2020b</xref>). Many research
				findings based on time series have shown that tourism is the most critical component
				in a country's economic growth, namely, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand in Asia, and
				Malta, Spain, and Hungary in Europe; the 20 most prosperous countries in travel
				economy WTR-20 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Katircioglu">Katircioglu 2009</xref>;
					<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Tang">Tang and Tan 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr"
					rid="Yalçinkaya">Yalçinkaya, Daştan and Karabulut 2018</xref>). Research on
				tourism's influence on the economy has found that most tourist development benefits
				economic growth; however, the opposite direction is not famous (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Pablo-Romero">Pablo-Romero and Molina 2013</xref>). </p>
			<p>Nations grow faster and more stable in the long run if they have better financial
				systems. The financial sector's prosperity opens up great opportunities for economic
				expansion and boosts other industries (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Hassan">Hassan et
					al. 2011</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Eryigit">Eryigit and Eryigit
					2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Song">Song and Lin 2010</xref>). <xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Ding">Ding and Ma (2018)</xref> revealed that tourism and
				finance have a long-term positive relationship in both the long and short term in
				Srilanka from 1970 to 2018. Over the interval 1975-2016, Shahbaz et al. (2019)
				discovered a two-way causal association between tourism and financial development in
				Malaysia. From 1960 to 2014, domestic tourism played a critical role in boosting
				India's long and short-term economic growth (Ohlan 2017). Finance is one of the
				profound impacts of internal forces to form professional tourism quality (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Šimková">Šimková 2007</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr"
					rid="Jange">Jange 2013</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Barbu">Barbu
					2015</xref>). In times of disaster risk and spreading disease, flexible
				financial tools can keep tourism operations resilient (<xref ref-type="bibr"
					rid="Sigala">Sigala 2020</xref>).</p>
			<p>The Đổi Mới policy1986 put Vietnam into a free-market economic transition from a
				centrally planned economy. Vietnam achieved an impressive yearly average GDP growth,
				attracted significant foreign direct investment, and became an outstanding tourist
				destination (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Baum">Baum 2020</xref>; <xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Thanh">Thanh 2014</xref>). The robustness of the financial
				structure opens up investment opportunities, increasing savings rates and expansion
				of capital, increasing production in all fields, especially in the era when the
				global economy thrives. Tourism is currently recognized as a critical economic
				sector, engaging in investment and supporting links for other sectors, namely,
				agriculture, industry, education, health, and other services to develop together. </p>
			<p>Notwithstanding, to date, there has not been an insight study applying econometric
				models with time series to assert the vital role of finance and economy in Vietnam's
				tourism development. Studying this relationship aims to address the research gap in
				atourism emerging country also well known as an economic phenomenon of the Asia
				region– Vietnam. Based on these arguments, using the ARDL model with data from 1990
				to 2020 will be the first study of Vietnam to investigate the correlation between
				tourism, finance, and economic development. This research is conducted to clarify
				the two main goals: (1) to figure out the influence of economic and financial growth
				on tourism development in both the short and long term for the study interval; (2)
				to examine the causal relationship between observed variables. This study will
				provide a holistic view of Vietnam's tourism development over the past 31 years on
				the energy of economy and finance. Thus, the result of this study could support the
				economists in building future development strategies, strengthening the efficiency
				of the financial sector, and orienting sustainable tourism development.</p>
			<p>This paper will describe in order: Section 2 expresses the theoretical foundation to
				illustrate the correlation between tourism, finance, and economic development and
				the role of tourism in Vietnam's economy. Section 3 shows the main results and
				in-depth analysis. Section 4 includes conclusions, policy recommendations, some
				limitations, and future research direction. </p>
			<p> </p>
		</sec>
		<sec>
			<label>1. THEORETICAL FOUNDATION</label>
			<p>This part includes a brief review of the correlation between the development of
				tourism, economic growth, and financial development. From the basement theories,
				purpose, and research direction are conducted.</p>
			<p><bold>How does the development of tourism and economic growth influence each
					other?</bold></p>
			<p>The tourism industry has asserted its crucial role in global economic progress.
				Studying to clarify how the development of tourism and economic growth stimulate
				each other is quite popular, not only in individual countries but also in
				multi-country regions. Especially, "the tourism-led growth hypothesis" was first
				formulated and researched in 2002, attracting numerous researchers with a diverse
				selection of econometric functions, sophisticated in-depth analyses, and accurate
				and valuable research results.</p>
			<p>The development of tourism and the growth of the economy have different causality in
				research countries, and it is decided by the methodology and the research interval.
				The systematic literature review of  <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Brida"
					>Brida, Lanzilotta and Pizzolon (2016)</xref>, and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Gwenhure"
					>Gwenhure and Odhiambo (2017)</xref> demonstrate the interaction between the
				economy and the tourism sector. For more detail, there was causality from Tourism
				development to Economy growth: in Spain (1975-1997); in Taiwan, South Korea,
				Mauritius (1952-1999); in Kenya, Turkey, South Africa, and Bahrain (1990-2014); in
				Malaysia (1975-2011); in India, and Pakistan (1971-2011); in Chile (1986-2007); in
				35 countries in East Asia-South Asia-Oceania; in OECD and non-OECD countries
				(1990-2002); in Pacific Island Countries (1985-2010). There was a causality flow
				from Economic growth to Tourism development: in South Korea (1975-2001), in Croatia,
				Cyprus, Tanzania, and Sri Lanka (1977-2012). A bidirectional relationship between
				Tourism development and Economic growth: in Taiwan (1959-2003); in Italia, Spain,
				and Greece (1960-2000); in Turkey (1980-2004), in the Mediterranean region
				(1988-2011), in 19 Island economies (1990-2007). Lastly, there was no causal
				relationship between Tourism development and Economic growth: in Latin America
				(1980-1997), in Brazil (1965-2006), in Turkey (1960-2006), in Greece (1960-2010). To
				sum up, "The tourism-led growth hypothesis" was proved in the bulk of studies.</p>
			<p><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Hampton">Hampton et al. (2018)</xref> indicated Vietnam's
				tourism industry promoted growth, creating jobs, and increased income and spending
				for the local community. The shortcoming is this research uses data from a single
				year and does not offer enough evidence to confirm the "tourism-led growth
				hypothesis". <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Duc">Duc Toan et al. (2019)</xref> revealed
				that the tourism industry had a significant contribution to economic growth in
				Vietnam in the 1990-2017 interval. Based on this evidence and outcomes, this study
				extends the observed variable to examine the interaction between tourism, economy,
				and finance from 1990 to 2020.</p>
			<p><bold>How do tourism expansion and financial development influence each
				other?</bold></p>
			<p>An ARDL model analysis indicated that domestic and international tourism were
				positively impacted by economic and financial crises in 2007 <xref ref-type="bibr"
					rid="Song">Song and Lin (2010)</xref> and can be used to figure out the
				influence level of the financial crisis on tourism from Asia countries.
				Investigating the period from 1960 to 2014,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Ohlan"> Ohlan
					(2017)</xref> showed that India's tourism, economic, and financial development
				was not independent. In a multinational study (Italy, France, Spain, Turkey, and
				Greece), covering the interval 1995-2010, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Basarir"
					>Basarir and Cakir (2015)</xref> found that an increase in tourist arrivals
				positively influenced financial development. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Ngoasong"
					>Ngoasong and Kimbu (2016) </xref>confirmed the vital role of financial
				institutions in creating development opportunities and investing in tourism projects
				contributes to the outstanding achievement of small and medium tourist
				enterprises.</p>
			<p>Looking back at the context of Vietnam, the research of <xref ref-type="bibr"
					rid="Kumar">Kumar (2014)</xref> is the sole study to date that reveals the
				development of finances affected the tourism sector and the economy in Viet Nam for
				the 1980–2010 period. More in-depth and updated studies are needed to continue
				exploring the interaction between finance and tourism to cover the research gap in
				this country at this moment.</p>
			<p><bold>The magnificent achievement of tourism in Vietnam's economic development
					process</bold></p>
			<p>Vietnam is the world's sixth-fastest-growing tourism destination (UNWTO-2019). It has grown 85 times after
				30 years of restoration and opening. In 1990, there were just 350 tourist
				accommodation establishments; by the end of 2019, there were 30,000. Between 1990
				and 2020, the number of international tourists climbed by 72, from 250,000 to over
				18 million. The annual growth rate was over 20%. According to a report by the
				Vietnamese Statistical Office of the year 2019, the tourist industry contributed 9.2
				percent to GDP, with 2.9 million jobs. The rapid increase in tourism revenue
				contributed to citizens' economic and spiritual well-being (<xref ref-type="bibr"
					rid="Duc">Duc Toan et al. 2019</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Trang">Trang
					et al. 2014</xref>). Vietnam's tourist achievement has recently received
				regional and international recognization, winning prestigious awards (Asia's leading
				cultural destination, Asia's Top Destination, The World's Leading Destination for
				Heritage, etc.). </p>
			<p>On the whole, between 1990 and 2020, the size of the economy increased 12 times, GDP
				per capita increased 8.3 times, imports and export increased 29.5 times, and foreign
				exchange reserves reached a record 47.6 times. In 2020, the scale of Vietnam's
				economy reached about 343 billion USD, ranking in the top 40 largest economies in
				the world and fourth in ASEAN; GDP per capita is 3,521 USD, ranking 6th in
				ASEAN.</p>
			<p>The size of the financial market is constantly increasing, meeting the economy's
				capital supply demand. This financial market growth can be seen as supporting
				financial resources for businesses to stabilize and develop production. As an
				illustration, domestic credit to the private sector has increased significantly over
				the years. A holistic view of tourism, finance, and economic progress can be seen in
				Table 1:</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t1">
					<label>Table 1:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Basic information on Vietnam's tourism, economy, and finances
								sectors from 1990 to 2020</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="1" 
						style="width:367.9pt;border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;  mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt"
						width="805">
						<col width="19%"/>
						<col width="10%"/>
						<col width="9%"/>
						<col width="9%"/>
						<col width="9%"/>
						<col width="10%"/>
						<col width="11%"/>
						<col width="11%"/>
						<col width="11%"/>
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"> </td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>1990</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>1995</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>2000</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>2005</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>2010</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>2015</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>2019</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>2020</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Domestic tourist (Milion
									USD)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.9</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">6.9</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">11.2</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">16.1</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">28</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">57</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">85</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">31</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">International tourist
									(Million USD)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.25</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">1.3</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">2.1</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">3.5</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">5.1</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">7.9</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">18</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">3.6</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Revenue from tourism sector
									(Million USD)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">58</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">396</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">760</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">1304</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">4173</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">15652</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">32827</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">13460</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">GDP (Billion USD)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">6.5</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">20.7</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">31.2</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">58.7</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">115.6</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">193.2</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">261.2</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">271.2</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Domestic credit to the
									private sector (% of GDP)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">-</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">18.5</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">35.3</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">60.5</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">114.7</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">111.9</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">137.9</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">147.7</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Broad money growth (annual
									%)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">-</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">-</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">34.4</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">30.9</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">29.7</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">14.9</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">13.62</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">13.63</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p><italic>Source: Annual report of Vietnam statistical office – 1997, 2000, 2010,
					2020</italic></p>
		</sec>
		<sec>
			<label>2. METHODOLOGY</label>
			<p>Data description We use GDP as a representative of the economy's size and tourism
				revenue as a proxy for the size of the tourism industry and broad money-M3 as a
				representative of the level of financial development. "The M3 classification is the
				broadest measure of an economy's money supply. Economists traditionally used M3 to
				estimate the entire money supply within an economy and by central banks to direct
				monetary policy to control inflation, consumption, growth, and liquidity overmedium
				and long-term periods" (OECD). "The oldest and most widely used indicator of
				financial development is the ratio of M3 to GDP or the ratio of domestic money
				banks' assets to GDP" (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="King">King and Levine
				1993</xref>). This Vietnam study uses broad money - M3 to represent financial
				development. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Agbloyor">Agbloyor (2014)</xref>, <xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Eryigit">Eryigit and Dulgeroglu (2015)</xref>, and 
				<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Kutan">Kutan, Samargandi and Sohag (2017)</xref> also
				used broad money as an observed variable to measure financial development. Table 2
				shows that all three observed variables increased steadily during the study period.
				Each variable has a median more minor than the mean. In this case, it confirms that
				each data set is positively skewed </p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t2">
					<label>Table 2:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Descriptive statistics</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="1" 
						style="width:365.4pt;margin-left:-.25pt;border-collapse:collapse;border:none;  mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:  0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt"
						width="487">
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>Statistic</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"><bold>TR
										(million USD)</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"><bold>GDP
										(million USD)</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"><bold>FD
										(%)</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Mean</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">6.68</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>94838.61</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">79.61</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Median</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">1.36</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">75633</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">70.96</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Maximum</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">34.3</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">271.20</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">179.7</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Minimum</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.6</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">6472</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">18.57</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Observations</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">31</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">31</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">31</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p><bold>The model and methodology</bold></p>
			<p>This empirical research model is inherited and developed based on many earlier
				investigations. With its flexibility and efficiency, the ARDL model has been chosen
				for numerous economic problems of tourism and regional development (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Pesaran">Pesaran, Shin and Smith 2001</xref>). To
				illustrate, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Basarir">Basarir and Cakir (2015)</xref>, and
				Eryigit and Eryigit, (2015) revealed the relationship between tourism and other
				sectors: agriculture, finance, health service, urbanization, energy consumption, and
				the ability to attract investment. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Khan">Khan et al.
					(2020b)</xref>, and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Pedrana">Pedrana (2013)</xref>
				accomplished research on formulating regional economic and tourism development
				policies. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Khan">Khan et al. (2020a)</xref> and <xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Bibi">Bibi et al. (2021)</xref> figured out the positive
				relationship between tourism and human well-being. Other notable studies on the
				correlation between economy, tourism, and foreign investment in Saudi Arabia were
				conducted by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Dkhili">Dkhili and Dhiab (2018)</xref>;
					<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Ohlan">Ohlan (2017)</xref> investigated the
				interaction between tourism, finance, and economic growth in India. In Vietnam's
				context, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Dinh">Dinh (2019)</xref> discovered the impact
				of tourism and investment from abroad on long-term economic development.
				Furthermore, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Kumar">Kumar (2014)</xref> and <xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Duc">Duc Toan et al. (2019)</xref> demonstrated "the
				tourism led growth hypothesis" for the interval 1990-2017 in Vietnam.</p>
			<p>From the limitations and future research direction of the above authors, this study
				is formed to evaluate the level of economic and financial impacts on tourism
				development in Vietnam for the 1990-2020 interval. The Eview software (version 12)
				is used to process the data in this investigation. To determine the interaction and
				reciprocal dynamics between variables, we use a Cobb-Douglass production function as
				follows:</p>
			<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_-728096477.png"/>, where:</p>
			<list list-type="bullet">
				<list-item>
					<p>TR = tourism revenue (in billion USD) </p>
				</list-item>
				<list-item>
					<p>GDP = GDP (in billion USD)</p>
				</list-item>
				<list-item>
					<p>FD = M3 (%) </p>
				</list-item>
			</list>
			<p>The result includes testing both the long and short-term correlation between these
				observed variables. The linear logarithm form is posed:</p>
			<p><graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_589389686.png"/></p>
			<p><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Pesaran">Pesaran and Shin (1995)</xref> stated the ARDL
				method has many conveniences and advantages over another cointegration approach.
				First, the ARDL model is a statistically more robust approach to cointegration
				testing for a small sample size of the study (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Nkoro"
					>Nkoro and Uko 2016</xref>). Second, the ARDL method only estimates a single
				equation to figure out the long-run relationships, while other methods need multiple
				systems of equations. Third, other cointegration approaches expect the same lagging
				regressors to be incorporated, while in the ARDL model, the regression variables can
				allow different optimal lags. Lastly, if the author does not guarantee the unit root
				attribute or statiosnarity of the data system at I (1) or I (0), then the ARDL
				procedure is most suitable for Analysis.</p>
			<p>The sample size for the ARDL model is a minimum of 30 and a maximum of 80 (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Agresti">Agresti and Min 2002</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr"
					rid="Udoh">Udoh, Afangideh and Udeaja 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr"
					rid="Nkoro">Nkoro and Uko 2016</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Menegaki"
					>Menegaki 2019</xref>). In Vietnam's case, the study period is from 1990 to
				2020, which means the sample size is 31. Furthermore, the optimal lag is 1. This
				result fits the ARDL technique's requirements and ensures accurate outcomes (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Pesaran">Pesaran, Shin and Smith 2001</xref>; <xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Agresti">Agresti and Min 2002</xref> ; <xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Udoh">Udoh, Afangideh and Udeaja 2015</xref>).</p>
			<p><bold>Unit root test</bold></p>
			<p>This test determines whether the variables are stationary before performing the
				causality test (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Shrestha">Shrestha and Bhatta
				2018</xref>), and non-stationary variables can invalidate standard experimental
				results. In this study, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is chosen to test for
				the presence of unit roots and the Schwarz information criterion (SC), and the
				Akaike information criterion (AIC). The ADF will determine the optimal lag for the
				Cobb-Douglas production function by selecting values ​​for the lag (𝑛) and
				obtaining the value of 𝑛 at which the SC or AIC reaches the minimum (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Menegaki">Menegaki 2019</xref>).</p>

			<p><bold>ARDL test</bold></p>
			<p>The dynamic between the development of tourism, economic development, and financial
				development in the long-term is described by the standard log-linear function
				below:</p>
			<p><graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_-2078325946.png"/></p>
			<p>Where:</p>
			<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_-761520176.png"/> is the first difference
				operator; </p>
			<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_1708151523.png"/> is a constant; </p>
			<p>t is the time element; </p>
			<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_320629582.png"/> and <inline-graphic
					xlink:href="clip_image004_-1800307859.png"/> are the short-term coefficients; </p>
			<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image006_-1588901339.png"/> and <inline-graphic
					xlink:href="clip_image008_549411524.png"/> are the long-term coefficients;</p>
			<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image010_-229796477.png"/>is the white noise error
				term;</p>
			<p><italic>it</italic> represents a particular period.</p>
			<p><italic>it</italic> represents a particular period.</p>
			<p>The result of the ARDL approach is based on the significance of the F-statistic and
				the <inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_-443651161.png"/> statistic of the
				Wald test. The hypothesis of cointegration between the variables is accepted or not
				through the significance of the F-statistic of <inline-graphic
					xlink:href="clip_image004_-14241973.png"/> and <inline-graphic
					xlink:href="clip_image006_-1495650329.png"/>.</p>
			<p>Next, using an error correction model (ECM) to test the short-run influence of these
				variables:</p>
			<p><graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_1037818287.png"/></p>
			<p>Where ECT is the error correction term, <graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_-1687496102.png"
				/>are the constants of the model; <graphic xlink:href="clip_image004_-178147701.png"
				/> are the error terms; and <graphic xlink:href="clip_image006_-1398721006.png"/>is
				its coefficient which shows the speed to come back the equilibrium of the variables
				if there is any deviation in the short term. The speed of error correction consists
				of a stable relationship among these variables in the long term (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="
					Songling">Songling et al. 2019</xref>).</p>
			<p><bold>Causal test</bold></p>
			<p>The ARDL approach does reveal the degree of cointegration in the long run, but it
				does not indicate causal relationships among the variables. Hence, a Granger test
				was performed to examine the causal relationship between tourism development,
				economic development, and financial development. The Granger test used in this
				research is based on the models of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Chandio">Chandio et
					al. (2019)</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Croes">Croes et al. (2021)</xref>;
				and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Nepal">Nepal et al. (2019)</xref>. Naturally, there
				will be Granger causality in at least one direction if a long-term correlation
				between these variables exists. Estimate the following error correction models:</p>
			<p>Where </p>
			<p>Where ECT is the error correction term, <graphic
					xlink:href="clip_image002_1387744538.png"/></p>
			<p> are the constants of the model; <graphic xlink:href="clip_image004_-178999799.png"/>
			</p>
			<p>are the error terms; and <graphic xlink:href="clip_image006_146687936.png"/></p>
			<p>is its coefficient which shows the speed to come back the equilibrium of the
				variables if there is any deviation in the short term. </p>
			<p>(represent) / are the constants of the model; </p>
			<p>Where <inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_374067348.png"/>(represent) / are the
				constants of the model; <inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image004_581450687.png"
				/>and <inline-graphic xlink:href="clip_image006_2110462212.png"/> are the error
				term.</p>
		</sec>
		<sec>
			<label>3. IV. EMPIRICAL RESULT AND MAIN DISCUSSION</label>
			<p><bold>Correlation statistics between variables</bold></p>
			<p>Table 3 describes the correlation between these observed variables. The value of r
				has statistical significance if the sig value is less than 0.05. The closer to 1 of
				r is, the stronger the linear correlation is. The correlation results show that all
				variables are highly positively correlated with each other, when one variable
				changes, the other variables also change in the same direction.</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t3">
					<label>Table 3:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Correlations matrix</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="0" 
						style="border-collapse:collapse;mso-table-layout-alt:fixed;mso-yfti-tbllook:  1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt">
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="bottom"
										><bold>Correlation</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="bottom"
										><bold>LGDP</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="bottom"
										><bold>LTR</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="bottom"
										><bold>FD</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">LGDP</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">1</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"> </td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"> </td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">LTR</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">.885**
									(0.000)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">1</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"/>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">FD</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">.966**
									(0.000)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">.813**
									(0.000)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">1</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="4" valign="top">**. Correlation is
									significant at the 5% level.</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p><bold>Unit root test</bold></p>
			<p>All the observed variables are stationary at (I), which is shown in detail in Table
				4. Therefore, we can continue with the test for co-integration between observed
				variables.</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t4">
					<label>Table 4:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Results of Unit root test</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="1" 
						style="border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;  mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt">
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="3" colspan="1" align="center"><bold>Variable with
										Intercept</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="5" align="center"><bold>ADF
									Test</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="2" align="center"><bold>Level 1</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="2" align="center"><bold>First
										difference</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="2" colspan="1" align="center"
									><bold>Decision</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center"
									><bold>t-statistic</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center"><bold>p-value</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center"
									><bold>t-statistic</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center"><bold>p-value</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center">TR</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center">2.517</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center">0.996</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center">-2.307</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center">0.022</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center">(I)</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">GDP</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">-1.022</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.743</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">-10.284</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.000</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">(I)</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">FD</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">4.190</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">1.000</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">-3.622</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.000</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">(I)</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p>As the result from Table 5, following the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the
				optimal lag of the observed variables is at (I).</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t5">
					<label>Table 5:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Results of optimal lags</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="1" 
						style="width:366.35pt;border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-alt:  solid windowtext .5pt;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt"
						width="715">
						<col width="8%"/>
						<col width="14%"/>
						<col width="15%"/>
						<col width="15%"/>
						<col width="16%"/>
						<col width="16%"/>
						<col width="16%"/>
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>Lag</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>LogL</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>LR</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>FPE</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>AIC</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>SC</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>HQ</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">1</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><italic>42.53234</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><italic>1317.223*</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><italic>0.000120*</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><italic>-0.517417*</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><italic>-0.235733*</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><italic>-0.403093*</italic></td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p><bold>ARDL – cointegration testing</bold></p>
			<p>The tests show the bounds test for co-integration (Table 6) and the result for the
				series model (Table 6). In the model, TR = f(GDP, FD), at a 5% significance level,
				the F-statistic is 5.77 and is higher than the upper bound critical value. These
				results show that the variables share a relationship in the long term. From this
				base, we can proceed with the next estimation.</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t6">
					<label>Table 6:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Results of ARDL – cointegration testing</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="1" 
						style="width:5.1in;margin-left:-.25pt;border-collapse:collapse;border:none;  mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:  0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt"
						width="753">
						<col width="20%"/>
						<col width="16%"/>
						<col width="18%"/>
						<col width="13%"/>
						<col width="13%"/>
						<col width="19%"/>
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="2" colspan="1" align="center"><bold>Equation
										model</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="2" colspan="1" align="center"
									><bold>F-statistic</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="2" colspan="1" align="center"><bold>SC lag-length
										criteria</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="2" align="center">
									<p><bold>Bound critical values</bold></p>
									<p><bold>(at 10% significance level)</bold></p>
								</td>
								<td rowspan="2" colspan="1" align="center"
									><bold>Decision</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>I(0)</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>I(1)</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">TR = f(GDP,
									FD)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">5.77</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">(1,1,2)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">3.79</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">4.48</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>Co-intergrated</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p>In the long term (Table 7), economic development is positively and strongly
				associated with tourism development: a 100% improvement in economic development can
				be linked to a 72.6% increase in tourism development. Similarly, a 100% increase in
				financial development will link to a 1.84 % enlarge in tourism development. The
				function for the long run is:</p>
			<p/>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t7">
					<label>Table 7:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Long-run estimate from the ARDL model</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="1" 
						style="width:368.7pt;margin-left:-.25pt;border-collapse:collapse;border:none;  mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:  0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt"
						width="726">
						<col width="26%"/>
						<col width="22%"/>
						<col width="19%"/>
						<col width="19%"/>
						<col width="14%"/>
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>Variable</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>Coefficient</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"><bold>Std.
										error</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>t-statistic</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>Prob</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">Economic
									development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>0.726723</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>0.336183</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>2.161690</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.0408</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">Finance
									development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>0.018432</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>0.007062</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>2.610122</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.0153</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p><bold>ECM – short-term relationship</bold></p>
			<p>Then, to acquire the assessments of the short-run correlation between economic
				development and financial development in the tourism industry in Vietnam, the error
				correction approach was utilized. The details are shown in Table 8 below:</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t8">
					<label>Table 8:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Results of ECM</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="1" 
						style="border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;  mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt">
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>Variable</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"
									><bold>Coefficient</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>Std.
									error</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"
									><bold>t-Statistic</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>Prob.</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Economic development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"> 0.951949</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.156008</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">6.101917</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.0000</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Finance development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"> 0.004027</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.001595</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">2.525554</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.0129</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"
									><italic>ECT(-1)</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"
									><italic>-0.079443</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"
									><italic>0.021984</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"
									><italic>-3.613724</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"
									><italic>0.0005</italic></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><italic>Adjusted
										R-squared</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><italic>37.8%</italic></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"/>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"/>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"/>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p>In the short term, a 100% increase in economic development is associated with a 95.2%
				increase in tourism development. Meanwhile, a 100% increase in financial development
				results in only a 0.4 percent increase in tourism development. Thus, in comparison
				to the effect of financial development, economic growth has a more positive and
				significant impact on tourism development in the long and short term. Lastly, the
				speed of the variable's return to equilibrium in the long term is 7.9%.</p>
			<p><bold>Granger causality test</bold></p>
			<p>Hypothesis H0 is rejected when the probability of variables is less than 0.05. The
				details are presented in Table 9. It can be imagined as a circle that demonstrates a
				consistently positive impact from tourism development to finance development, from
				finance development to economic growth, and finally from economic growth to tourism
				development. The result of causality from the tourism sector to finance development
				is opposite to the finding of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Kumar">Kumar (2014)</xref>
				for Vietnam from 1980 to 2010. The impact direction of the observed variables has
				changed over time and economic policy in those different periods. According to
				preliminary research, few studies have discovered a positive influence of the
				economy on tourism development. Tourism demonstrates its attractiveness, potential,
				and critical role in Vietnam's economic development. Notwithstanding, this empirical
				research on Vietnam has demonstrated that the economy is the primary driver of
				tourism development during the research phase. Specially, tourism contributes to
				increased financial development. Policymakers should pay closer attention to these
				findings in order to improve economic policies in Vietnam.</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t9">
					<label>Table 9:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Granger causality outcomes</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="1"
						style="width:368.65pt;margin-left:-.25pt;border-collapse:collapse;border:none;  mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:  0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt"
						width="944">
						<col width="37%"/>
						<col width="22%"/>
						<col width="20%"/>
						<col width="21%"/>
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>Null
										hypothesis</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"
									><bold>F-statistic</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>Prob.</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>Result</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Tourism development does
									not Granger cause Financial development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">5.58671</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.0256 </td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Reject H0</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Financial development does
									not Granger cause Tourism development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">1.73316</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.1991</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Accept H0</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Economic development does
									not Granger cause Financial development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">4.00322</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.0566</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Accept H0</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Financial development does
									not Granger cause Economic development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">6.73179</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.0151</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Reject H0</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Economic development does
									not Granger cause Tourism development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">4.66802</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.0398</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Reject H0</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Tourism development does
									not Granger cause Economic development</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.20293</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">0.6560</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Accept H0</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p><bold>The variance decomposition analysis</bold></p>
			<p>The variance decomposition test analyzes the variability of a variable as a result of
				the shock of the variable itself and the shocks of other endogenous variables (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Lütkepohl">Lütkepohl 2010)</xref>. In other words, this
				test figures out the degree of influence of the independent variable on the change
				of the dependent variable.</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t10">
					<label>Table 10:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>The variance decomposition analysis of Tourism development</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="0" 
						style="border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:  0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;mso-border-insideh:none;mso-border-insidev:none">
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">The economic and financial
									contributions to tourism development</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">
									<p><graphic xlink:href="clip_image002_510233632.png"/></p>
									<p><graphic xlink:href="clip_image004_-697875759.png"/></p>
								</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p>In some countries, the economy did not play a pivotal role in promoting tourism
					(<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Mukherjee">Mukherjee and Chakraborty 2010</xref>;
					<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Reyes">Reyes and Useche 2019</xref>).
				Notwithstanding, in this study of Vietnam, where the economic contribution to
				tourism development is 30.4%, and finance's contribution is 18.1% (Table 10).
				Strongly, it calls for more effective policies in increasing the effective intensity
				of economic activities and expanding the financial system, thence impulsing tourism
				activities. </p>
			<p><bold>Diagnostic tests for the model</bold></p>
			<p>The regression model undergoes rigorous and complete tests to ensure the correct
				results: </p>
			<list list-type="bullet">
				<list-item>
					<p>Wald test to check the right function with null hypothesis C (2) = C (3) = 0;
					</p>
				</list-item>
				<list-item>
					<p>Ramsey RESET to check if a function is missing a variable with the null
						hypothesis is this is a proper function with no missing variable; </p>
				</list-item>
				<list-item>
					<p>Serial correlation LM test with the null hypothesis is a regression function
						that does not occur autocorrelation; </p>
				</list-item>
				<list-item>
					<p>Heteroskedasticity with the null hypothesis is a model without variance
						change. </p>
				</list-item>
			</list>
			<p>The outcomes are illustrated in Table 11:</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t11">
					<label>Table 11:</label>
					<caption>
						<title><bold>Diagnostic test for the model</bold>
						</title>
					</caption>
					<table border="1"
						style="margin-left:49.25pt;border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-alt:  solid windowtext .5pt;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt">
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>Test</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"><bold>Statistic</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
										><bold>Value</bold></td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top"
									><bold>Probability</bold></td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">Wald</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">F-statistic</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>3.079393</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.0650</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ramset RESET</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">F-statistic</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>1.600711</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.2179</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1">Serial Correlation LM</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">F-statistic</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>0.033671</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.8560</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1">Heteroskedasticity (White)</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" valign="top">F-statistic</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top"
									>1.821812</td>
								<td rowspan="1" colspan="1" align="center" valign="top">0.1369</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p>
				<fig id="f1">
					<label>Latent Construct 1</label>
					<p><bold>The plot of CUSUM and CUSUM of square test for the TR model</bold></p>
					<graphic xlink:href="./THM-28-3-641-F1.jpg"/>
				</fig>
			</p>
		</sec>
		<sec>
			<label>4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS </label>
			<p><italic>The principal outcomes</italic></p>
			<p>This research is conducted to answer the question, <italic>"How close is the
					influence of economic and financial development on tourism development in
					Vietnam for the interval 1990-2020?".</italic> In the short term and long term,
				the economy and financial development have a beneficial connection with tourism
				development. </p>
			<p>Significantly, economic growth plays a crucial role in tourism development. In other
				words, the increase in economy has a more positive and significant impact on tourism
				development in comparison to the effect of financial development. To illustrate, in
				the long run, a 100% increase in GDP can be linked to a 72.6% increase in tourism
				revenue. In contrast, a 100% increase in financial development resulted in only a
				1.8% increase in tourism revenue. The Granger test demonstrates a one-way causal
				relationship between economic growth and tourism development, tourism development,
				and finance development, and finance development and economic growth. </p>
			<p><italic>Policy recommendations </italic></p>
			<p>Research to better understand the key factors that influence and promote tourism is
				crucial and necessary, especially in light of the impact of global change on an
				industry with economic benefits such as tourism. Policy, forecasting, and risk
				management systems for tourism are developed based on these outcomes.</p>
			<p>Based on the findings of this study's relationship between tourism, finance, and
				economic development, policymakers should focus more on strengthening and improving
				those positive causes in order to achieve a sustainable development economy. The
				tourism industry is the area of ​​lubricating financial investment activities (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Ohlan">Ohlan 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Al-Mulali"
					>Al-Mulali et al. 2021</xref>). This paper strongly supports these authors. The
				benefits of the finance sector, in turn, are the source of motivation for economic
				development. Consequently, accompanying economic growth, tourism activities express
				impressive performance. This study confirms that designating the tourism industry as
				a spearhead economic sector in Vietnam is a reasonable decision that requires more
				flexible strategies to promote vigorous growth in the future. An economy is
				considered to be sustainable when there is an ecosystem, showing a sustainable
				connection between sectors, namely, finance, energy, services (tourism),
				agriculture, industry (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Khan">Khan et al. 2021b</xref>).
				As a result of boosting the strength of the positive causal relationship between the
				triangle: economy-finance-tourism, it becomes the core energy, as well as the
				positive impact, spread to other economic sectors, namely, agriculture, forestry,
				and industry.</p>
			<p>It is necessary to have a more favorable environment to increase the outstanding
				achievements of the tourism industry. To do this, Vietnam needs to promote the role
				of regional and territorial administrators in determining the type of tourism
				suitable for each locality. Universities offer advanced training in tourism to
				upgrade the quality of human resources. And the most important is building vital
				ecosystems and linkages, diversifying, and improving the quality of tourism
				activities to ensure stable and sustainable growth. </p>
			<p>The context of post-Covid recovery takes countries that are more cautious with the
				implementation of development strategies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Quang">Quang et
					al. 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Sigala">Sigala 2020</xref>; <xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Altuntas">Altuntas and Gok 2021</xref>; <xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Škare">Škare et al. 2021</xref>). So far, Covid's variants
				still have been complicated. In contrast, countries have taken advantage of
				financial tools to recover quickly, resulting in increased inflationary pressures
				and the international currency and financial market risks. In the short and long
				term, policymakers must have sustainable economic development orientations. The
				maximum utility of financial tools for resilience is essential, but maintaining a
				reasonable balance between growth and inflation is critical to ensuring residents
				and businesses adapt to the changes and challenges created by the pandemic.</p>
			<p>Strengthening and perfecting the mechanism of the economic ecosystem becomes of
				primary importance for recovery and getting back on the development path of
				countries, especially in this health crisis-hitting era. A robust economic ecosystem
				is reflected in the quality of human resources (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="Khan"
					>Khan et al. 2020a</xref>). Furthermore, financial education is a tool for
				economic development and improving resident living standards <xref ref-type="bibr"
					rid="Batsaikhan">Batsaikhan and Demertzis (2018)</xref>. In the context of Vietnam,
				productivity is masinly created by the knowledge-based economy. To firmly
				consolidate, one of the ground knowledge that must be added is finance, which is the
				shortcoming in Vietnam's educationsystem. Thus, as numerous countries are doing,
				early financial education should be added to the curriculum flexibly and
				practically.</p>
			<p>To stimulate investment and production activities, as well as to ease the flow and
				power of M3, policies to attract corporate and individual financial investment need
				to be completed. In addition, it is crucial to aim for convenient access and high
				liquidity to create a positive driving force for the economy and tourism (<xref
					ref-type="bibr" rid="Ohlan">Ohlan 2017</xref>). Interest rate policies must also
				be more flexible, especially in the post-pandemic. This creates openness and
				convenience in finance activities. Furthermore, as Pedrana's recommendation (2013),
				the government should forward to green financial investment opportunities for
				development and the sustainability of the financial and economic system.</p>
			<p>In terms of committing to sustainable development, the long-term economic development
				strategy needs to transition to green models. This model advocates the efficient and
				economical use of natural resources and energy. In addition, the advancement of
				science and technology, the application of digital technology, and digital
				transformation are prioritized to take advantage. The green revolution in tourism
				and finance is now a pilot propensity in Vietnam. To strengthen Vietnam's
				competitiveness in attracting foreign investment. Vigorously, its positive influence
				is spreading to other economic sectors. Policymakers must make additional efforts to
				promote these advantages of Vietnam further.</p>
			<p><italic>Limitations and future research direction</italic></p>
			<p>Some limitations can be noticed. Firstly, using M3 as the sole factor to represent
				financial development, other additional observations such as domestic credit, stock
				market capitalization, and bank credit have a high rate of missing value, and
				inclusion will cause biased research results. Secondly, due to the crisis of the
				pandemic, the data has not been fully updated. The covid -19 pandemic and border
				closure began in 2020, and Vietnam's tourism industry suffered a 40% loss. This
				precipitous drop may skew the overall result. However 2020 data is still used to
				observe the crises that appear in economic operations initially.</p>
			<p>Other studies extend this proxy to more fully measure the properties of this
				observable variable, for instance, by including domestic credit, stock market
				capitalization, stock market turnover of domestic shares, and bank credit. Moreover,
				it is possible to expand exogenous variables such as urbanization and agricultural
				development to see better the correlation between financial industries, which is
				especially important for emerging countries such as Vietnam. Another proposed
				research direction is to use "the green finance" variable to observe its spillover
				to the economic and tourism development processes in the current trend of a net-zero
				carbon economy. Furthermore, we can expand research data for the ASEAN region for
				regional vision and strategy.</p>
		</sec>
	</body>
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