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Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia

Valerija Botrić ; Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia
Maruška Vizek ; Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (125 KB) str. 23-36 preuzimanja: 447* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Botrić, V. i Vizek, M. (2012). Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 15 (1), 23-36. Preuzeto s https://hrcak.srce.hr/85784
MLA 8th Edition
Botrić, Valerija i Maruška Vizek. "Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia." Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, vol. 15, br. 1, 2012, str. 23-36. https://hrcak.srce.hr/85784. Citirano 12.11.2019.
Chicago 17th Edition
Botrić, Valerija i Maruška Vizek. "Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia." Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business 15, br. 1 (2012): 23-36. https://hrcak.srce.hr/85784
Harvard
Botrić, V., i Vizek, M. (2012). 'Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia', Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 15(1), str. 23-36. Preuzeto s: https://hrcak.srce.hr/85784 (Datum pristupa: 12.11.2019.)
Vancouver
Botrić V, Vizek M. Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business [Internet]. 2012 [pristupljeno 12.11.2019.];15(1):23-36. Dostupno na: https://hrcak.srce.hr/85784
IEEE
V. Botrić i M. Vizek, "Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia", Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, vol.15, br. 1, str. 23-36, 2012. [Online]. Dostupno na: https://hrcak.srce.hr/85784. [Citirano: 12.11.2019.]

Sažetak
In this paper we asses the ability of alternative time series models to produce accurate
fi scal revenue forecasts in a transition country and compare them to offi cial forecast. We
take on a disaggregated approach and estimate separate models for seven revenue sources.
Alternative time series models – trend model, random walk, ARIMA, regression and error
correction models – are specifi ed using quarterly data. One - and two - year ahead forecasts
are calculated and compared against actual values and offi cial forecasts. Results suggest
that despite impediments, econometric methods produce forecasts that are in general more
accurate than offi cial forecasts prepared using expert judgment.

Ključne riječi
forecasting; fiscal revenues; time series; transition

Hrčak ID: 85784

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/85784

Posjeta: 596 *