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Croatian Operational Research Review, Vol. 1 No. 1, 2010.

Izvorni znanstveni članak

ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE

Václava Pánková ; Faculty of Informatics and Statistics, University of Economics, Prague, Czech Republic
Eva Cihelková ; Faculty of International Relations, University of Economics, Prague, Czech Republic
Roman Hušek ; Faculty of Informatics and Statistics, University of Economics, Prague, Czech Republic

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (242 KB) str. 221-226 preuzimanja: 500* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Pánková, V., Cihelková, E. i Hušek, R. (2010). ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE. Croatian Operational Research Review, 1 (1), 221-226. Preuzeto s https://hrcak.srce.hr/94971
MLA 8th Edition
Pánková, Václava, et al. "ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE." Croatian Operational Research Review, vol. 1, br. 1, 2010, str. 221-226. https://hrcak.srce.hr/94971. Citirano 21.05.2019.
Chicago 17th Edition
Pánková, Václava, Eva Cihelková i Roman Hušek. "ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE." Croatian Operational Research Review 1, br. 1 (2010): 221-226. https://hrcak.srce.hr/94971
Harvard
Pánková, V., Cihelková, E., i Hušek, R. (2010). 'ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE', Croatian Operational Research Review, 1(1), str. 221-226. Preuzeto s: https://hrcak.srce.hr/94971 (Datum pristupa: 21.05.2019.)
Vancouver
Pánková V, Cihelková E, Hušek R. ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE. Croatian Operational Research Review [Internet]. 2010 [pristupljeno 21.05.2019.];1(1):221-226. Dostupno na: https://hrcak.srce.hr/94971
IEEE
V. Pánková, E. Cihelková i R. Hušek, "ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE", Croatian Operational Research Review, vol.1, br. 1, str. 221-226, 2010. [Online]. Dostupno na: https://hrcak.srce.hr/94971. [Citirano: 21.05.2019.]

Sažetak
The study on volatility and asymmetry of the exchange rate is applied to the Euro/USD relation. Starting in U.S.A., the financial and economic crisis influenced European Union with a certain delay. On the other
hand, this years´ problems in Eurozone are paralleled by rising American economy. That is why we can expect both currencies to develop in different ways. In general, the depreciation deviation of exchange rate can lead to a higher volatility than the appreciation deviation, what implicates asymmetric effects. The uncertainty of exchange rate has a tendency to be inconstant in the time-varying cases, so it has a feature of conditional heteroscedasticity. That is why the models from the ARCH family are employed to study whether the asymmetry is present in the data in question; source: ECB. The Engle – Ng tests for asymmetry in volatility are used to determine whether an asymmetric model is required as adequate. A forecast will be given including an ex post comparison as well as an ex ante prognosis. Financial support from the GA CR project 402/09/0273 and the Research Plan MSM 6138439909 is appreciated.

Ključne riječi
Asymmetric volatility; EGARCH model; News impact curve – NIC

Hrčak ID: 94971

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/94971

Posjeta: 653 *