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Can Consumer Confidence Data Predict Real Variables? Evidence from Croatia

Marija Kuzmanovic
Peter Sanfey


Puni tekst: engleski pdf 248 Kb

str. 5-24

preuzimanja: 1.073

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Sažetak

This paper uses monthly data to examine the links between consumer confidence and real economic variables in Croatia, and it tests whether movements in the former contain predictive power for the latter. The results suggest that changes in consumer confidence help to explain retail turnover and imports and that expectations about forthcoming major purchases have predictive power for retail turnover. We also find that the inclusion of confidence on the right-hand side improves the fit of simple models of retail turnover, a variable that is highly correlated with quarterly GDP. The results therefore highlight the usefulness of these survey data in helping explain and forecast the real economy.

Ključne riječi

consumer confidence; Croatia

Hrčak ID:

100312

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/100312

Datum izdavanja:

17.4.2013.

Posjeta: 1.960 *