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Croatian Operational Research Review, Vol. 6 No. 1, 2015.

Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2015.0019

How (i)rrational are we? A case of Croatian inflation

Nataša Erjavec   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-0943-2198 ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Ivana Lolić ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Petar Sorić ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (331 KB) str. 241-253 preuzimanja: 202* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Erjavec, N., Lolić, I. i Sorić, P. (2015). How (i)rrational are we? A case of Croatian inflation. Croatian Operational Research Review, 6 (1), 241-253. https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2015.0019
MLA 8th Edition
Erjavec, Nataša, et al. "How (i)rrational are we? A case of Croatian inflation." Croatian Operational Research Review, vol. 6, br. 1, 2015, str. 241-253. https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2015.0019. Citirano 23.02.2019.
Chicago 17th Edition
Erjavec, Nataša, Ivana Lolić i Petar Sorić. "How (i)rrational are we? A case of Croatian inflation." Croatian Operational Research Review 6, br. 1 (2015): 241-253. https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2015.0019
Harvard
Erjavec, N., Lolić, I., i Sorić, P. (2015). 'How (i)rrational are we? A case of Croatian inflation', Croatian Operational Research Review, 6(1), str. 241-253. doi: https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2015.0019
Vancouver
Erjavec N, Lolić I, Sorić P. How (i)rrational are we? A case of Croatian inflation. Croatian Operational Research Review [Internet]. 2015 [pristupljeno 23.02.2019.];6(1):241-253. doi: https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2015.0019
IEEE
N. Erjavec, I. Lolić i P. Sorić, "How (i)rrational are we? A case of Croatian inflation", Croatian Operational Research Review, vol.6, br. 1, str. 241-253, 2015. [Online]. doi: https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2015.0019

Sažetak
This paper examines the validity of the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) in the case of Croatian consumers and their inflation estimates. The added value of this paper in comparison to previous similar studies lies in the state space methodology, allowing the authors to test for potential time variability of the estimated relationship between actual and expected inflation. The obtained results can be summarized as follows: i) consumers heavily over-estimated actual inflation throughout the entire period 2005-2014, leading to the rejection of the REH; ii) consumer bias against inflation intensifies in times of abrupt price hikes (2007 and 2008), and diminishes in times of lower inflation volatility (2014). This empirical rejection of the REH is in line with previous research on the topic, providing additional evidence that the theoretical paradigm of homo economicus is heavily flawed.

Ključne riječi
inflation expectations; rational expectations hypothesis; state space model; consumer surveys; time-varying parameters

Hrčak ID: 138611

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/138611

Posjeta: 400 *