Revija za sociologiju, Vol. 11 No. 3-4, 1981.
Izvorni znanstveni članak
Temporary Labour Migration from Other Yugoslav Republics and Autonomous Provinces to SR Croatia – An Atempt to Use Multiple Regression Analysis
Maria Oliveira-Roca
; Centar za istraživanje migracija, Zagreb
Sažetak
The objective of this paper was to test the significance of selected economic variables influencing the volume of temporary labour migration from other Yugoslav republics and autonomous provinces to the municipalities of SR Croatia. The number of unskilled and semi-skilled temporary migrant workers (Mj) is the dependent variable. The independent variables were: Gj, the number of unskilled and semi-skilled workers in the construction sector of the municipality of work j; Dj, the wage levels for unskilled, semi-skilled workers in j; Nj, the unemployment rate for unskilled, semi-skilled workers in j; Uj, the size of the urban population of j.
It was hypothesized that Gj, Dj, Uj are statistically significant and positively correlated with Mj, while the opposite was to hold for Nj. Multiple regression was chosen as the most adequate statistical technique to test the above hypotheses. Data were used from the Census of the Employed in the Organizations of Associated Labour (Enterprises) of SR Croatia.
A very high coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.92) and multiple correlation coefficient (R = 0.95) were obtained. However, the only statistically significant independent variable was found out to be Gj. Uj and Gj had a very high Pearson's correlation coefficient (r = 0.99), which suggests a case of multicolinearity. Furthermore, the extremely high values attributed to Zagreb, the largest city and the most important economic center of SR Croatia; on the one hand, as well as the extremely low values attributed to the 27 least developed Croatian municipalities, on the other hand, seemed to have contributed to the high R and R2. Another multiple regression was then performed without such cases and a smaller but still significant R (0.72) and R2 (0.50) resulted. However, only Gj was shown to be statistically significant and positively correlated with Mj. In other words, a policy measure the goal of which is to affect the affect the size of the publicly-owned construction sector of the Croatian municipalities would also contribute to a change in the intensity of the flow of unskilled and semiskilled workers from other Yugoslav republics and autonomous provinces.
After analyzing the regression residuals, it seems that a modified gravitation model may be the most adequate one to test the factors which influence temporary labour migration. The independent variables would be: number of employed in the traditional sector of the economy; travel time between the area of origin and destination; contacts with early migrants (a non-economic variable).
Ključne riječi
Hrčak ID:
155932
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.12.1981.
Posjeta: 789 *