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Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2016.0007

Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

Mirjana Čižmešija   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-7291 ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Nataša Erjavec   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-0943-2198 ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Fulltext: english, pdf (107 KB) pages 97-107 downloads: 378* cite
APA 6th Edition
Čižmešija, M. & Erjavec, N. (2016). Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?. Croatian Operational Research Review, 7 (1), 97-107. https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2016.0007
MLA 8th Edition
Čižmešija, Mirjana and Nataša Erjavec. "Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?." Croatian Operational Research Review, vol. 7, no. 1, 2016, pp. 97-107. https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2016.0007. Accessed 17 Sep. 2021.
Chicago 17th Edition
Čižmešija, Mirjana and Nataša Erjavec. "Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?." Croatian Operational Research Review 7, no. 1 (2016): 97-107. https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2016.0007
Harvard
Čižmešija, M., and Erjavec, N. (2016). 'Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?', Croatian Operational Research Review, 7(1), pp. 97-107. https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2016.0007
Vancouver
Čižmešija M, Erjavec N. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?. Croatian Operational Research Review [Internet]. 2016 [cited 2021 September 17];7(1):97-107. https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2016.0007
IEEE
M. Čižmešija and N. Erjavec, "Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?", Croatian Operational Research Review, vol.7, no. 1, pp. 97-107, 2016. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2016.0007

Abstracts
The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI), the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI) and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI). The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators) and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

Keywords
confidence indicators; expansion; business survey; probit models

Hrčak ID: 157351

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/157351

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