hrcak mascot   Srce   HID

Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2016-0006

Croatian First Football League: Teams' performance in the championship

Dušan Munđar   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0001-6697-4383 ; Faculty of Organization and Informatics, University of Zagreb, Varaždin, Croatia
Diana Šimić ; Faculty of Organization and Informatics, University of Zagreb, Varaždin, Croatia

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (346 KB) str. 15-23 preuzimanja: 183* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Munđar, D. i Šimić, D. (2016). Croatian First Football League: Teams' performance in the championship. Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, 2 (1), 15-23. https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2016-0006
MLA 8th Edition
Munđar, Dušan i Diana Šimić. "Croatian First Football League: Teams' performance in the championship." Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, vol. 2, br. 1, 2016, str. 15-23. https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2016-0006. Citirano 15.11.2019.
Chicago 17th Edition
Munđar, Dušan i Diana Šimić. "Croatian First Football League: Teams' performance in the championship." Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics 2, br. 1 (2016): 15-23. https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2016-0006
Harvard
Munđar, D., i Šimić, D. (2016). 'Croatian First Football League: Teams' performance in the championship', Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, 2(1), str. 15-23. https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2016-0006
Vancouver
Munđar D, Šimić D. Croatian First Football League: Teams' performance in the championship. Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics [Internet]. 2016 [pristupljeno 15.11.2019.];2(1):15-23. https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2016-0006
IEEE
D. Munđar i D. Šimić, "Croatian First Football League: Teams' performance in the championship", Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, vol.2, br. 1, str. 15-23, 2016. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2016-0006

Sažetak
The goal of our research was to use simulation modelling for prediction of the Croatian First Football League seasonal ranking and analyse variation in teams’ performance during a season. We have developed a model of the number of goals scored by a team in a match based on the Poisson distribution. Parameters of the model were estimated from the data on consecutive matches in a season. Variation in a team’s performance was modelled as a moving parameter estimate. The final rankings were predicted from 1000 simulation runs of the second part of the season based on parameter estimates from the first part of the season. For each team the most frequent outcome of the simulation defined the team's rank. The method was tested on seasons 2014/15 and 2015/16. Prediction was correct for six teams in the season 2014/15 and five teams in the season 2015/16. Proposed methods enable dynamic monitoring of a team’s performance and prediction of final rankings during the season. An advantage of the prediction method is that in addition to predicting the final ranking it also estimates probabilities of alternative positions.

Ključne riječi
football; performance monitoring; Poisson distribution; predictive analytics; simulation; sports analytics

Hrčak ID: 166294

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/166294

Posjeta: 330 *