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Review article
https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2016.2.555

Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia:Is economic sentiment the missing link?

Nataša Erjavec   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-0943-2198 ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Petar Sorić   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-6773-264X ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Mirjana Čižmešija   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-7291 ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Fulltext: english, pdf (1 MB) pages 555-579 downloads: 574* cite
APA 6th Edition
Erjavec, N., Sorić, P. & Čižmešija, M. (2016). Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia:Is economic sentiment the missing link?. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, 34 (2), 555-579. https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2016.2.555
MLA 8th Edition
Erjavec, Nataša, et al. "Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia:Is economic sentiment the missing link?." Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, vol. 34, no. 2, 2016, pp. 555-579. https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2016.2.555. Accessed 3 Dec. 2021.
Chicago 17th Edition
Erjavec, Nataša, Petar Sorić and Mirjana Čižmešija. "Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia:Is economic sentiment the missing link?." Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci 34, no. 2 (2016): 555-579. https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2016.2.555
Harvard
Erjavec, N., Sorić, P., and Čižmešija, M. (2016). 'Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia:Is economic sentiment the missing link?', Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, 34(2), pp. 555-579. https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2016.2.555
Vancouver
Erjavec N, Sorić P, Čižmešija M. Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia:Is economic sentiment the missing link?. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci [Internet]. 2016 [cited 2021 December 03];34(2):555-579. https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2016.2.555
IEEE
N. Erjavec, P. Sorić and M. Čižmešija, "Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia:Is economic sentiment the missing link?", Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, vol.34, no. 2, pp. 555-579, 2016. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2016.2.555

Abstracts
This paper aims to assess the possibility of predicting Croatian recessionary
episodes using probit models. The authors first estimate a baseline static model
using four leading indicators of recession (monetary base, unemployment,
industrial production, and CROBEX stock market index). Lag lengths of up to 6
months are examined for each of the observed variables in the probit specification,
and several important conclusions arise from the estimated models. First, the stock
market and money supply exhibit the most pronounced leading characteristics in
the Croatian economy (a 3-month lag length is selected by the information
criteria). Second, the dynamic model (including a lagged dependent dummy
variable) significantly outperforms the baseline static model. Third, the authors
augment the probit model by the Economic Sentiment Indicator, which significantly
contributes to the model accuracy. The latter confirms the main hypothesis of the
paper, going in line with the assertion that psychological factors largely govern
the economic cycles, growing in significance in times of economic hardship.

Keywords
Recession forecasting; probit regression; Economic Sentiment Index; Business and Consumer Surveys

Hrčak ID: 171163

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/171163

[croatian]

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