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https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.4.3

Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy

Petar Sorić   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-6773-264X ; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Ivana Lolić   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0003-3112-7699 ; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (1 MB) str. 443-477 preuzimanja: 135* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Sorić, P. i Lolić, I. (2017). Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy. Public Sector Economics, 41 (4), 443-477. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.4.3
MLA 8th Edition
Sorić, Petar i Ivana Lolić. "Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy." Public Sector Economics, vol. 41, br. 4, 2017, str. 443-477. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.4.3. Citirano 20.11.2019.
Chicago 17th Edition
Sorić, Petar i Ivana Lolić. "Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy." Public Sector Economics 41, br. 4 (2017): 443-477. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.4.3
Harvard
Sorić, P., i Lolić, I. (2017). 'Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy', Public Sector Economics, 41(4), str. 443-477. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.4.3
Vancouver
Sorić P, Lolić I. Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy. Public Sector Economics [Internet]. 2017 [pristupljeno 20.11.2019.];41(4):443-477. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.4.3
IEEE
P. Sorić i I. Lolić, "Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy", Public Sector Economics, vol.41, br. 4, str. 443-477, 2017. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.4.3

Sažetak
The aim of this paper is to quantify institutional (political and fiscal) and non-institutional uncertainty (economic policy uncertainty, Economists’ recession index, natural disasters-related uncertainty, and several disagreement measures). The stated indicators are based on articles from highly popular Croatian news portals, the repository of law amendments (Narodne novine), and Business and Consumer Surveys. We also introduce a composite uncertainty indicator, obtained by the principal components method. The analysis of a structural VAR model of the Croatian economy (both with fixed and time-varying parameters) has showed that a vast part of the analysed indicators are significant predictors of economic activity. It is demonstrated that their impact on industrial production is the strongest in the onset of a crisis. On the other hand, the influence of fiscal uncertainty exhibits just the opposite tendencies. It strengthens with the intensification of economic activity, which partially exculpates the possible utilization of fiscal expansion as a counter-crisis tool.

Ključne riječi
economic uncertainty; Economic Policy Uncertainty Index; VAR model with time-varying parameters

Projekti
HRZZ / IP / IP-2013-11-3858 / MCPSIL2484BI - Uloga ekonomskog sentimenta u tumačenju makroekonomskih trendova: metodološka unapređenja i nova područja primjene

Hrčak ID: 190404

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/190404

Posjeta: 204 *