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The Possible Influence of Published Results of Pre-Election Polls on the Behaviour of Voters in Elections
Vesna LAMZA POSAVEC
Stanko RIHTAR
Sažetak
In the research the authors tried to assess the possible
influence of published results of pre-election polls on voters'
preferences and intentions to vote. The starting hypothesis
was that a direct influence on voters was possible if the
following conditions were fulfilled: that they had seen or
heard the results of such polls, that they knew their results and believed in their credibility. The data were collected on
representative samples of the Croatian adult population, in
the last three days of the 2003 election campaign for the
Croatian Parliament and the first round of the 2005
Presidential Elections. The results suggest firstly that even the
theoretical influence of published polls at the time was
relatively small. It was further indicated that in the 2003
research those who could have been theoretically influenced
were mostly among the potential voters for the SDP, which
came in second at the elections, and in the research for the
2005 elections those influenced were among the possible
voters for the leading presidential candidate Stjepan Mesi}.
However, differences have been observed that positively
correlate with the level of education and some other
demographic characteristics of the examinees, but not with
the indicators of the possible influence of pre-election polls.
The results are in accordance with findings of most of the
research conducted worldwide, stating that there is no
conclusive scientific evidence of a significant direct influence
of published results of public opinion research on the
electoral behaviour of individuals.
Ključne riječi
public opinion research; influence of pre-election polls; bandwagon-effect; underdog-effect; electoral behaviour
Hrčak ID:
18921
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.4.2007.
Posjeta: 2.427 *