Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2019.1.55
The role of asymmetry in the interplay between internal and external factors: Empirical evidence from the US, Brazil, Canada and Mexico
Kaya Tokmakcioglu
orcid.org/0000-0002-5981-299X
; Faculty of Management Engineering, Department of Management Engineering, Istanbul Technical University. Macka Campus, 34343 Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey
Oguzhan Ozcelebi
orcid.org/0000-0001-8746-9167
; Faculty of Economics, Department of Economics, Istanbul University. Beyazit Campus, 34542 Beyazit, Istanbul, Turkey
Ali Sezin Ozdemir
orcid.org/0000-0001-6687-9554
; Faculty of Management Engineering, Department of Management Engineering, Istanbul Technical University. Macka Campus, 34343 Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey
Sažetak
In this study, the real economic activity and monetary policy in the US are examined in comparison with the foreign trade balance and exchange rates, using Qual VAR and nonlinear VAR models. We found that the foreign trade with Brazil, Canada and Mexico do not lead to a possible recession in the US. The value of the domestic currency of Brazil, Canada and Mexico against the US dollar does not contribute to a possible recession over the foreign exchange market. We also show that a contraction in the US economy and contractionary monetary policy will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar by leading to capital inflows. Although the shadow interest rate may have asymmetric effects on the foreign trade balance with Canada and USD/CAD, we find that the foreign trade balance with Mexico and USD/MXN will be affected positively/negatively by an increase/decrease in the shadow interest rate.
Ključne riječi
shadow interest rate; exchange rate; foreign trade balance; Qual VAR; non-linear VAR
Hrčak ID:
221669
URI
Datum izdavanja:
28.6.2019.
Posjeta: 1.777 *