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The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro

Vassilis Monastiriotis ; The London School of Economics and Political Science
Ivan Zilic   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-1660-2124 ; The Institute of Economics, Zagreb

Fulltext: english, pdf (2 MB) pages 2-29 downloads: 147* cite
APA 6th Edition
Monastiriotis, V. & Zilic, I. (2019). The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro. Radni materijali EIZ-a, (3), 2-29. Retrieved from https://hrcak.srce.hr/222742
MLA 8th Edition
Monastiriotis, Vassilis and Ivan Zilic. "The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro." Radni materijali EIZ-a, vol. , no. 3, 2019, pp. 2-29. https://hrcak.srce.hr/222742. Accessed 29 Sep. 2020.
Chicago 17th Edition
Monastiriotis, Vassilis and Ivan Zilic. "The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro." Radni materijali EIZ-a , no. 3 (2019): 2-29. https://hrcak.srce.hr/222742
Harvard
Monastiriotis, V., and Zilic, I. (2019). 'The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro', Radni materijali EIZ-a, (3), pp. 2-29. Available at: https://hrcak.srce.hr/222742 (Accessed 29 September 2020)
Vancouver
Monastiriotis V, Zilic I. The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro. Radni materijali EIZ-a [Internet]. 2019 [cited 2020 September 29];(3):2-29. Available from: https://hrcak.srce.hr/222742
IEEE
V. Monastiriotis and I. Zilic, "The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro", Radni materijali EIZ-a, vol., no. 3, pp. 2-29, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://hrcak.srce.hr/222742. [Accessed: 29 September 2020]

Abstracts
Is there an economic premium from state independence? We shed light on this question by analysing the unique historical case of the peaceful separation of Serbia and Montenegro in 2006—the last fully recognised internationally state-disintegration on European soil. Using the synthetic control approach, we find that independence for the seceding country (Montenegro) had a sizeable but transitory positive effect, boosting GDP per capita in the period immediately following independence, but with gains slowly evaporating in the longer period—which we attribute to increased vulnerability of the newly independent state to fluctuations in the international economic environment. In contrast, for Serbia, we find no evidence of an independence dividend. While these results are context-specific, the resemblance of Serbia and Montenegro’s case with the contemporaneous independence movements in Europe, namely in the realm of policy autonomy pre-separation, provide insights on possible economic outcomes of secessions on the national and supra-national level in Europe.

Keywords
secession; independence; political disintegration; synthetic control; Western Balkans

Hrčak ID: 222742

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/222742

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