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https://doi.org/10.26332/seemedj.v5i1.199

Imported Infections Versus Herd Immunity Gaps; A Didactic Demonstration of Compartment Models Through the Example of a Minor Measles Outbreak in Hungary

Katalin Böröcz ; Department of Immunology and Biotechnology, Clinical Centre, University of Pécs Medical School, Pécs, Hungary
Ákos Markovics ; Department of General and Physical Chemistry, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
Zsuzsanna Csizmadia ; Department of Immunology and Biotechnology, Clinical Centre, University of Pécs Medical School, Pécs, Hungary
Joseph Najbauer ; Department of Immunology and Biotechnology, Clinical Centre, University of Pécs Medical School, Pécs, Hungary
Timea Berki ; Department of Immunology and Biotechnology, Clinical Centre, University of Pécs Medical School, Pécs, Hungary
Péter Németh ; Department of Immunology and Biotechnology, Clinical Centre, University of Pécs Medical School, Pécs, Hungary

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (791 KB) str. 1-16 preuzimanja: 26* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Böröcz, K., Markovics, Á., Csizmadia, Z., Najbauer, J., Berki, T. i Németh, P. (2021). Imported Infections Versus Herd Immunity Gaps; A Didactic Demonstration of Compartment Models Through the Example of a Minor Measles Outbreak in Hungary. Southeastern European Medical Journal, 5 (1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26332/seemedj.v5i1.199
MLA 8th Edition
Böröcz, Katalin, et al. "Imported Infections Versus Herd Immunity Gaps; A Didactic Demonstration of Compartment Models Through the Example of a Minor Measles Outbreak in Hungary." Southeastern European Medical Journal, vol. 5, br. 1, 2021, str. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26332/seemedj.v5i1.199. Citirano 24.10.2021.
Chicago 17th Edition
Böröcz, Katalin, Ákos Markovics, Zsuzsanna Csizmadia, Joseph Najbauer, Timea Berki i Péter Németh. "Imported Infections Versus Herd Immunity Gaps; A Didactic Demonstration of Compartment Models Through the Example of a Minor Measles Outbreak in Hungary." Southeastern European Medical Journal 5, br. 1 (2021): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26332/seemedj.v5i1.199
Harvard
Böröcz, K., et al. (2021). 'Imported Infections Versus Herd Immunity Gaps; A Didactic Demonstration of Compartment Models Through the Example of a Minor Measles Outbreak in Hungary', Southeastern European Medical Journal, 5(1), str. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26332/seemedj.v5i1.199
Vancouver
Böröcz K, Markovics Á, Csizmadia Z, Najbauer J, Berki T, Németh P. Imported Infections Versus Herd Immunity Gaps; A Didactic Demonstration of Compartment Models Through the Example of a Minor Measles Outbreak in Hungary. Southeastern European Medical Journal [Internet]. 2021 [pristupljeno 24.10.2021.];5(1):1-16. https://doi.org/10.26332/seemedj.v5i1.199
IEEE
K. Böröcz, Á. Markovics, Z. Csizmadia, J. Najbauer, T. Berki i P. Németh, "Imported Infections Versus Herd Immunity Gaps; A Didactic Demonstration of Compartment Models Through the Example of a Minor Measles Outbreak in Hungary", Southeastern European Medical Journal, vol.5, br. 1, str. 1-16, 2021. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.26332/seemedj.v5i1.199

Sažetak
Introduction: In Hungary, where MMR vaccine coverage is 99%, in 2017, a minor measles epidemic started from imported cases due to two major factors – latent susceptible cohorts among the domestic population and the vicinity of measles-endemic countries. Suspended immunization activities due to the COVID-19 surge are an ominous precursor to a measles resurgence. This epidemiological demonstration is aimed at promoting a better public understanding of epidemiological data.

Materials and Methods: Our previous MMR sero-epidemiological measurements (N of total measles cases = 3919, N of mumps cases = 2132, and N of rubella cases = 2132) were analyzed using open-source epidemiological data (ANTSZ) of a small-scale measles epidemic outbreak (2017, Hungary). A simplified SEIR model was applied in the analysis.

Results: In case of measles, due to a cluster-specific inadequacy of IgG levels, the cumulative seropositivity ratios (measles = 89.97%) failed to reach the herd immunity threshold (HIT Measles = 92–95%). Despite the fact that 90% of overall vaccination coverage is just slightly below the HIT, unprotected individuals may pose an elevated epidemiological risk. According to the SEIR model, ≥74% of susceptible individuals are expected to get infected. Estimations based on the input data of a local epidemic may suggest an even lower effective coverage rate (80%) in certain clusters of the population.

Conclusion: Serological survey-based, historical and model-computed results are in agreement. A practical demonstration of epidemiological events of the past and present may promote a higher awareness of infectious diseases. Because of the high R0 value of measles, continuous large-scale monitoring of humoral immunity levels is important.

Ključne riječi
MMR; vaccine; humoral antibody; SEIR model

Hrčak ID: 256776

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/256776

Posjeta: 66 *