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Original scientific paper

Exit Polls: International and Croatian Experience

Vesna LAMZA POSAVEC ; Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar; Zagreb
Dragan BAGIĆ ; Faculty of Philosophy, Zagreb

Fulltext: croatian, pdf (228 KB) pages 671-694 downloads: 1.230* cite
APA 6th Edition
LAMZA POSAVEC, V. & BAGIĆ, D. (2008). IZLAZNE ANKETE: ISKUSTVA U SVIJETU I U HRVATSKOJ. Društvena istraživanja, 17 (4-5 (96-97)), 671-694. Retrieved from https://hrcak.srce.hr/29431
MLA 8th Edition
LAMZA POSAVEC, Vesna and Dragan BAGIĆ. "IZLAZNE ANKETE: ISKUSTVA U SVIJETU I U HRVATSKOJ." Društvena istraživanja, vol. 17, no. 4-5 (96-97), 2008, pp. 671-694. https://hrcak.srce.hr/29431. Accessed 25 Nov. 2020.
Chicago 17th Edition
LAMZA POSAVEC, Vesna and Dragan BAGIĆ. "IZLAZNE ANKETE: ISKUSTVA U SVIJETU I U HRVATSKOJ." Društvena istraživanja 17, no. 4-5 (96-97) (2008): 671-694. https://hrcak.srce.hr/29431
Harvard
LAMZA POSAVEC, V., and BAGIĆ, D. (2008). 'IZLAZNE ANKETE: ISKUSTVA U SVIJETU I U HRVATSKOJ', Društvena istraživanja, 17(4-5 (96-97)), pp. 671-694. Available at: https://hrcak.srce.hr/29431 (Accessed 25 November 2020)
Vancouver
LAMZA POSAVEC V, BAGIĆ D. IZLAZNE ANKETE: ISKUSTVA U SVIJETU I U HRVATSKOJ. Društvena istraživanja [Internet]. 2008 [cited 2020 November 25];17(4-5 (96-97)):671-694. Available from: https://hrcak.srce.hr/29431
IEEE
V. LAMZA POSAVEC and D. BAGIĆ, "IZLAZNE ANKETE: ISKUSTVA U SVIJETU I U HRVATSKOJ", Društvena istraživanja, vol.17, no. 4-5 (96-97), pp. 671-694, 2008. [Online]. Available: https://hrcak.srce.hr/29431. [Accessed: 25 November 2020]

Abstracts
The paper consists of two main parts. The first comprises a
short presentation of the development of exit polls worldwide
as well as a description of the most common methodological
approaches and prognostic validity of this type of research.
The second part analyses the validity of exit polls conducted
to date in Croatia and evaluates them from the point of view
of statistical prediction of election results as well as predicting
the political outcome of the election. It is concluded that the
results of previous exit polls, although relatively satisfactory in
a statistical sense, mostly contained certain biases which, in
close election races, resulted in a mistaken prognosis of the
order of the leading electoral competitors. In addition, in all
the research regarding election situations, the exit poll data
were inadequately interpreted in public presentations
because in projections of election results the important
methodological circumstances that could influence their
prognostic value were not taken into consideration.

Keywords
exit polls; public opinion research; research methodology; Croatian elections

Hrčak ID: 29431

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/29431

[croatian] [german]

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