Izvorni znanstveni članak
Reasons of Inconsistency: Who Changes Their Voting Decision and Why?
Goran MILAS
; Institut društvenih znanosti Ivo Pilar, Zagreb
Sažetak
An attempt was made in the study based on extensive
research of public opinion conducted in 1998 on a
probability sample of the Croatian population to determine
the scope of inconsistent behaviour in voters and gain insight
into the reasons for changing voting decisions. The research
has shown that the examinees' behaviour is relatively
inconsistent, so much so that approximately half of them
within the interval of three years intend to change the party
they will probably vote for in the future. Most of them do not
only change the party they vote for, but also the ideological
group they want to grant their confidence to, thus expressing
equally both party and ideological inconsistency.The drain
of voters from one party to another, as shown by the
discriminative analyses carried out, does not mostly occur
based on social status corresponding with the party profile,
but depends on the attitude towards those in power. Guided
by the current political reality and assessing contemporary
and specific problems, the voters, as a result of necessity,
behave inconsistently, abandoning the more permanent
determinants of their voting orientation. Such behaviour is
best described by the "common tank" model presupposing
that apart from the solid core of followers claimed by every
party, the majority of the electorate consists of voters whose
beahaviour is completely inconsistent, at one moment
inclining toward one party, and the next toward another, all
depending on accidental factors, estimates of momentary
political reality, or evaluations of platforms offered.
Ključne riječi
Hrčak ID:
31543
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.10.2000.
Posjeta: 1.875 *