The Impact of a New Container Port on the Greenhouse Gas Pollution

Abstract

Background: Large vessels that call at European ports will have to pay for their CO2 emissions from transporting cargo that enters or goes from a European port since January 2024. The costs will increase with increasing global trade. This results in a higher pollution level, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions like CO2. Methods/ Approach: Based on the gravity model embedded in a global supply chain, we developed a model to evaluate maritime transport pollution in case a new, sufficiently large container port becomes operational. Additionally, we consider how lousy railway connections to European customers increase transportation costs and pollution. Results: The approach to the well-connected sequences of gravity models in the intercontinental maritime chains evaluates the differences in quantities of cargo between ports when a new port is opened, and the waiting time does not change. We also highlight that poor rail connections can reduce this positive effect. Conclusions: We showed how it is possible to estimate the optimal capacity of a new port with a multi-level gravity model and how this would affect the pollution around the port and on the routes from the port to the final consumers.