Design of Social Infrastructure and Services Taking into Account Internal Migration by Age Cohort

Abstract

Background: European cities and regions are facing depopulation and an ageing population, leading to a shift in the demand and supply of goods and giving rise to the silver economy. This demographic change has an impact on urban and regional planning, which is influenced by both internal and external migration. Objectives: Based on the hypothesis that the attractiveness of locations also depends on the age of the inhabitants, the paper investigates the gravitational effects on the intensity of migration flows by age cohorts. Methods/Approach: This study examines how factors that influence the retention or attraction of people towards specific areas affect migration between age groups at different hierarchical spatial levels, using the gravity model implemented at the Slovenian spatial levels NUTS 2 and NUTS 3. Results: Distance is least important for the 65-74 age group, while wages influence only the youngest cohorts. The capacity of care homes has a significant influence on the attractiveness of older cohorts to move between NUTS 2 regions. There is a high correlation between the factors at the municipal and NUTS 3 levels for the population aged 75+. The factors at NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 levels show a strong correlation for those under 65. Conclusions: These results can form a basis for the development of the silver economy as they show the need for adapted infrastructures and services for older adults. As the age structure is changing, authorities should adapt infrastructures and services to the different levels of central places/regions. The growing number of older people makes research into optimal solutions for long-term care a crucial factor for the silver economy.