INTERDEPENDENCE OF MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND CREDIT RISKS IN CROATIA

Abstract

Purpose: The relationship between the macroeconomic environment and banking risks is one of the basic conditions for the stability of the state financial system. The purpose of this paper is to show the interdependence between the macroeconomic environment and the financial system, i.e., to highlight the importance of various macroeconomic factors and their impact on the banking system in Croatia.

Methodology: Statistical data for the period from 2010 to 2022, obtained from publicly available databases, are analysed. Correlation analysis was performed to determine the intensity and direction of the relationship between macroeconomic and banking variables. Regression analysis was conducted to determine if macroeconomic variables could explain some of the changes in banking variables.

Results: The results of the analysis show a significant correlation between the macroeconomic variable unemployment rate and all banking variables, as well as between the macroeconomic variable inflation rate and the banking variables: non-performing loans (NPL) and bank loans. Gross domestic product (GDP) is not correlated with any of the observed variables, which is a very interesting result. The unemployment rate is the predictor that is significant for all banking variables, while the inflation rate is the predictor that is significant only for non-performing loans.

Conclusion: The conducted analyses show that economic development plays a role in the business policies of banks. These results can be particularly useful for bank management and the government, as they provide all stakeholders with important information about the role of macroeconomic policies of financial institutions in Croatia and, consequently, the Croatian economy.