EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN FOREIGN DEBT INDICATORS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Abstract

Foreign trade indicators change in response to the global financial crisis and ultimately have a major impact on fiscal sustainability. Likewise, the increase in the budget deficit and public debt affects the growth of long-term and short-term interest rates, and the overall fiscal stability. The main objective of this paper is to review the impact of the global financial crisis on the tendency of the public debt in Bosnia and Herzegovina and various Western Balkans countries. Specifically, as the Maastricht criteria established a 60% of GDP debt limit, the paper will analyse the given limit, and the interdependence of imports in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the public debt of the general government sector by a simple regression analysis for the period 2008–2012. Thus, the regression model will be used to assess the dependence of the public debt of the Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina due to the increase of imports and exports of goods, as well as well as conditionality of export of goods and income.

Keywords: Indicators of foreign trade, imports, exports, public debt