Threshold magnitudes which cause the ground motion exceeding the values expected during the next 50 years in a metropolitan area

Abstract

Uniform Risk Response Spectrum Technique has been used to compute the geographical distribution of the threshold magnitude below which (1) there should be no damage in the well engineered structures and (2) future earthquake predictions should not cause much concern. It is shown that, if the long range planning of the seismic resistance of man made structures is based on the realistic estimates of seismic risk during their expected life, the moderate to large earthquakes, that may occur in the area, are not likely to cause much serious damage or disruption.