Meteorological forcing of the Adriatic: present vs. projected climate conditions

Abstract

Meteorological forcing of the Adriatic is examined under the present and predicted climate conditions. Fields from the time slice-experiment performed with ECHAM4 model (W. May and E. Roeckner: A time-slice experiment with the ECHAM4 AGCM at high resolution – the impact of horizontal resolution on annual mean climate change, Climate Dynamics, 17, 2001, 407–420) are closely analysed for the Adriatic region. Results obtained for the control period, when compared to a number of data, are found to reproduce the main features of the present-day surface heat flux, water flux and wind field above the Adriatic. In the future, the Adriatic should experience a reduction of heat loss to the atmosphere as well as an enhanced evaporation accompanied with a reduced precipitation leading to an overall increase of fresh-water loss to the atmosphere. The changes in synoptic activity should lead to an abatement of bora winds and to a reduced frequency of sirocco events which, however, are expected to be much more persistent. Finally, changes in the dynamics of the Adriatic, induced by altered meteorological forcing, are briefly discussed.