Temporal variability and spatial distribution of drought events in the lowlands of Slovakia

Abstract

Atmospheric drought in lowlands in Slovakia is analyzed on the bases of Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI). This paper gives information about the dynamic, intensity, seasonal and territorial differences in occurrence of drought with various intensity: mild (near to normal), moderate, severe and extreme for the period 1961-2011. Future changes in occurrence of drought are determined on the basis of model data (regional circulation models KNMI and MPI) for temperature and precipitation for two periods: 2001-2050 and 2051-2100.

The results show that temperature has an important role for occurrence of moderate and severe drought at monthly level and precipitation is the main factor for occurrence of extreme drought. There are an increasing number of cases with severe or extreme drought in summer for most of the investigated stations. Future projection of drought shows general tendency to increasing frequency of severe dry events in 2001-2050 and 2051-2100 while there will be a little decreasing of extremely dry months in comparison to 1961-2010.