Forecasting the hydroelectric power generation of GCMs using machine learning techniques and deep learning (Almus Dam, Turkey)

Abstract

Renewable energy is one of the most important factors for developed and sustainable societies. However, its utilization in electrical power grid systems can be very challenging regarding rates predictably. Renewable energy depends mainly on environmental conditions such as rainfall-runoff ratios and temperature. Because of that, the expected power production heavily fluctuates, which makes the prediction and calculation of feed-in into the power grid very challenging. The accurate forecasting of energy production is a very crucial issue for power management process. This paper presents the results of deploying Machine Learning Techniques in short-term forecasting of the amount of energy produced of General Circulation Models (GCMs) Data by Almus Dam and Hydroelectric Power Plant in Tokat, Turkey. The study demonstrates the use of modeling techniques in hydropower forecasting process using the predicted monthly hydroelectric power generation data of GCMs from 2018 to 2080. Decision Tree, Deep Learning, Generalized Linear, Gradient Boosted Trees and Random Forest models are utilized to forecast the hydropower production. The results show that the correlation value of the gradient boosted trees model equals 0.717, which means that the gradient boosted trees model is the most successful model for the present data. The gradient boosted trees model used in the prediction process for each GCM in each scenario is 4.5 and 8.5. The results show that there are small differences between the models, which means that the predictions are going in similar directions for all these models.