The future of taxation in changing labour markets
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.7Keywords:
income distribution, budget, deficit, job polarisation, population ageing, COVID-19Abstract
This paper provides a first assessment of the fiscal and distributional consequences of the ongoing structural changes in the labour markets of EU member states, mostly driven by technological progress and ageing. The Cedefop 2020 Skills forecast (including the effects of COVID-19), population projections and the forecast on pension expenditures depict a scenario of an ageing population, an inverted U-shaped unemployment trend and potentially polarising labour markets in the EU till 2030, the latter mostly driven by a surge in high-skill occupations. We make use of the microsimulation model EUROMOD and reweighting techniques to analyse the fiscal and distributional impacts of these trends under a no-policy-change assumption. The results suggest that the macro trends will increase pressure on government budgets, however, we also show that the current tax-benefit systems have the capacity to counterbalance the increases in income inequality and poverty risks triggered by the expected future labour markets developments.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Michael Christl, Ilias Livanos, Andrea Papini, Alberto Tumino
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright Notice
Public Sector Economics (PSE) is a an Open Access Journal licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, which permits use and redistribution (commercial and non-commercial), as long as the licensed work is passed along unchanged and in whole, with credit to PSE as original publisher.
Authors retain the copyright on the papers published in PSE but grant the right of first publication to the journal.
Papers published in PSE can be re-published only exceptionally and in unaltered form, e.g., as a chapter in a volume of an author’s collected papers, or as an unabridged translation for educational purposes. The author(s) must obtain written permission of the publisher and clearly indicate in a first page footnote the reference to the original publication in PSE.
Individual users may access, download, copy and display the papers published in PSE, provided that the authors’ intellectual and moral rights, reputation and integrity are not compromised. It is the obligation of the user to ensure that any reuse complies with the copyright policies of the owners.
If the content of papers published in the PSE is copied, downloaded or otherwise reused for non-commercial research and educational purposes, a link to the appropriate bibliographic citation (authors, title of the paper, PSE volume, year and page numbers) should be provided. Copyright notices and disclaimers must not be deleted.
