Seismic zoning and the problem of determination of expected maximum magnitude

(in Croatian)

Abstract

Determination of the expected maximum magnitude (M_max) in future earthquakes is one of the most important problems in seismic zoning of an area. On the example of the territory of Yugoslavia, an attempt is made for application of methods for expected M_max determination on the basis of seismological data. These data are taken from the catalogue of past earthquakes in Yugoslavia in the 1901 – 1980 period. The methods used for M_max determination are: magnitude-frequency relation N(M) and the sums of earthquake energy release.

These methods have been used for the first time for 4 seismoactive zones on the territory of Yugoslavia and for that fact it is interesting to compare the obtained results with the M_max results obtained by other methods. The comparison given in Table 8 shows a good accordance between these results.