Pregledni rad
THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS IN CROATIA: BLOCK EXOGENEITY SVAR APPROACH
Ksenija Dumicic
orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-9455
; Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Trg J.F. Kennedy 6, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Irena Palic
orcid.org/0000-0002-7525-0640
; Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Trg J.F. Kennedy 6, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Petra Sprajacek
; Kauzlaricev prilaz 9, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Sažetak
The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of foreign shocks on the Croatian economy in the last decade. The Croatian small open economy (SOE) does not affect prices nor other macroeconomic
variables of the foreign sector, but its economic activity depends on foreign economic trends. The crucial characteristic of the small open economy is the exogeneity of foreign variables for the domestic
economy, whereat foreign variables impact the domestic economy while the restriction of the model is that domestic variables do not impact foreign variables. Therefore, the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is estimated in order to assess the impact of foreign shocks on the Croatian economy. The impact of the euro area and income and price shocks is analyzed, wit h the emphasis on the relative importance of domestic versus foreign shocks. The impulse response functions and the variance decomposition analysis have confirmed that the foreign variables have a substantial impact on domestic variables and that the inclusion of the euro area variables is necessary for macroeconomic modelling of the Croatian economy.
Ključne riječi
Block exogeneity restrictions; Foreign shocks; Small open economy (SOE); Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model
Hrčak ID:
135727
URI
Datum izdavanja:
25.3.2014.
Posjeta: 2.010 *