Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v32i1.3134
Prediction of Fatal and Major Injury of Drivers, Cyclists, and Pedestrians in Collisions
Dalia Shanshal
; Data Science Laboratory, Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Ryerson University
Ceni Babaoglu
; Data Science Laboratory, Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Ryerson University
Ayşe Başar
; Data Science Laboratory, Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Ryerson University
Sažetak
Traffic-related deaths and severe injuries may affect every person on the roads, whether driving, cycling or walking. Toronto, the largest city in Canada and the fourth largest in North America, aims to eliminate traffic-related fatalities and serious injuries on city streets. The aim of this study is to build a prediction model using data analytics and machine learning techniques that learn from past patterns, providing additional data-driven decision support for strategic planning. A detailed exploratory analysis is presented, investigating the relationship between the variables and factors affecting collisions in Toronto. A learning-based model is proposed to predict the fatalities and severe injuries in traffic collisions through a comparison of two predictive models: Lasso Regression and Random Forest. Exploratory data analysis results reveal both spatio-temporal and behavioural patterns such as the prevalence of collisions in intersections, in the spring and summer and aggressive driving and inattentive behaviours in drivers. The prediction results show that the best predictor of injury severity for drivers, cyclists and pedestrians is Random Forest with an accuracy of 0.80, 0.89, and 0.80, respectively. The proposed methods demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning application to traffic and collision data, both for exploratory and predictive analytics.
Ključne riječi
Hrčak ID:
234273
URI
Datum izdavanja:
27.1.2020.
Posjeta: 1.235 *