Hrvatske vode, Vol. 30 No. 121, 2022.
Prethodno priopćenje
Air temperature analysis for Zagreb Grič and Split Marjan in the context of the standard climate normal
Ognjen Bonacci
orcid.org/0000-0002-7123-3421
; Sveučilište u Splitu, Fakultet građevinarstva, arhitekture i geodezije, Split, Hrvatska
Sažetak
In our public media, particularly primetime TV broadcasts, it is very often heard that the temperature was or will be higher than the average, i.e. above average. At the same time, it is almost never said which average it is, i.e. to which time period the comparison refers. It is also rare to hear how much this above average temperature is higher than the average one. This raises the issue of what is a climate average or a climate normal. During the twentieth century, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defined standard climate periods as those lasting 30 years. The climate normal represents a measure that is used for evaluating current climate conditions in comparison with the previous one(s). The Commission for Climatology of the WMO has recommended that, instead of every 30 years, standard climate periods should change every 10 years (https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/updated-30-year-reference-period-reflects-changing-climate). The last standard climate period of 1981-2010 is still valid. The New Climate Normal 30-year period is being prepared. It will cover the period from 1991 to 2020 and is expected to start from the beginning of 2022. The paper uses air temperature data measured at meteorological stations Split Marjan and Zagreb Grič to study the differences in conclusions about the recent changes in air temperature in the 2nd decade of the 3rd millennium (2011-2020). The following 4 partially overlapping climate standards were analysed: 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010 and 1991-2020. The analyses conducted in the paper indicate a necessity of constant changes / updates of the climate standard for estimating the variations in recent air temperatures. Considering a sudden increase in air temperature in the latest climate standard (1991-2020), it is this period that should be used for comparison and assessment of recent temperature conditions, as well as other climate parameters.
Ključne riječi
air temperature; climate standard; Split Marjan; Zagreb Grič
Hrčak ID:
284369
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.9.2022.
Posjeta: 584 *