Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1875254
Dynamic reference point method with probabilistic linguistic information based on the regret theory for public health emergency decision-making
Wenting Xue
Zeshui Xu
Xiaomei Mi
Zhiliang Ren
Sažetak
Group emergency decision-making is an uncertain and dynamic
process, in which the decision makers may be bounded rational
and have a risk appetite. To depict the vague qualitative assessments, the probabilistic linguistic term sets are employed to
express the perceptions of decision makers. First, considering the
regret-aversion of the decision makers’ psychological characteristic, the value function and the regret-rejoice function in the regret
theory are modified to adapt the probabilistic linguistic information. Second, the definition and aggregation operators of the
probabilistic linguistic time variable are proposed to describe and
aggregate the dynamic decision information. Third, the probabilistic linguistic models based on the dynamic reference point
method and the regret theory are studied to maximise the
expectation-levels of alternatives at the relative time point. The
proposed method is applied to select the optimal response strategy for the outbreak of COVID-19 in China. Finally, the comparative analysis is designed to verify the applicability and
reasonability of the proposed method.
Ključne riječi
Probabilistic linguistic term sets; dynamic reference point method; regret theory; emergency decision-making
Hrčak ID:
301660
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.12.2021.
Posjeta: 403 *