Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5513/JCEA01/25.2.4183
Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in Bosnia and Herzegovina using SPEI
Sabrija ČADRO
orcid.org/0000-0003-1058-7047
; University of Sarajevo, Faculty of Agriculture and Food Science, Zmaja od Bosne 8, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Hercegovina
*
Monika MARKOVIĆ
orcid.org/0000-0002-8742-6922
; Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Agrobiotechnical Sciences, Vladimira Preloga 1, 31000, Osijek, Croatia
Adna HADŽIĆ
orcid.org/0009-0001-5573-0671
; University of Sarajevo, Faculty of Agriculture and Food Science, Zmaja od Bosne 8, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Hercegovina
Adnan HADŽIĆ
orcid.org/0009-0009-1675-0723
; University of Sarajevo, Faculty of Agriculture and Food Science, Zmaja od Bosne 8, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Hercegovina
Ognjen ŽUROVEC
; Teagasc, Environment Soils and Land Use Department, Johnstown Castle, Oak Park, Carlow R93 XE12Wexford, Ireland
* Autor za dopisivanje.
Sažetak
Average monthly air temperatures in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) exhibit a notable rise during summer, ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 °C per decade, while precipitation experiences a significant decrease of up to 8 mm per decade. Climate models, across various RCP scenarios, project an increase in air temperature, that is most pronounced in the summer season. Additionally, there is a projected frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation during autumn. In BiH, agricultural production faces substantial risks, including droughts, spring and autumn frosts, hail, and floods. Recent years have witnessed extreme hydrological events, notably the 2012 drought and the 2014 floods. Strategic documents highlight the critical importance of addressing floods and droughts for agriculture, as well as their implications for the environment, households, and industry. To assess the severity of extreme hydrological events and their impact on agriculture, with a specific emphasis on autumn and summer in Bosnia and Herzegovina, average and peak values of the Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were calculated separately for the periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, focusing on October and August. Compared to the reference climatic period the current climate is characterized by shifts between intense wet and dry periods, with very few years exhibiting stable and expected weather conditions. Identified as extremely wet and flood-prone years, SPEI2 October values for 1974 (2.42), 1996 (2.13), 2001 (2.24), and 2014 (2.05) stand out, with only one extremely dry year in 1985 (-2.21). SPEI2 August indicates extremely dry years, notably 2012 (-2.35) and 2017 (-2.25).
Ključne riječi
drought; flood; agriculture; wetness; dryness; drought index
Hrčak ID:
318558
URI
Datum izdavanja:
28.6.2024.
Posjeta: 21 *