Izvorni znanstveni članak
Trends in the Number of Days With Snow Cover and Snow Cover Height in Slovenia
Igor Žiberna
; Filozofski fakultet, Sveučilište u Mariboru, Slovenija
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* Dopisni autor.
Sažetak
In the article, we discuss trends in the number of days with snow cover and the height of the snow cover in Slovenia. We included the following meteorological elements in the analysis: average air temperature, average minimum air temperature, average maximum air temperature, number of icy days (number of days with maximum air temperature below 0.0 °C), number of days with snowfall, number of days with snow cover and average monthly snow cover height. We used data from meteorological stations Kredarica (2514 m), Vojsko (1067 m), Postojna (533 m), Novo mesto (220 m), Ljubljana Bežigrad (299 m), Celje (241 m), Maribor Tabor (275 m), Šmartno pri Slovenj Gradcu (455 m) and Murska Sobota (188 m). For all meteorological stations, we considered data for the period between January 1951 and December 2023, and for winter periods up to and including February 2024. We also analyzed forecasts of changes in the number of days with snow cover in Slovenia until the end of the 21st century. We used the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model forecast of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, namely the SSP370 scenario.
On average, the annual number of days with snow cover is by far the highest in Kredarica (258 days), in Vojsko it is 117.6 days, in Šmartno pri Slovenj Gradcu 65.3 days, in Novo mesto 51.5 days, while at all other stations lower than 50 days, and the lowest is in Murska Sobota (38.2 days) and Postojna (38.4 days). The number of days with snow cover is decreasing at all meteorological stations. In Kredarica, the trend is -1.6 days/50 years, and in Postojna -9.0 days/50 years. The number of days with snow cover decreases the most in Šmartno pri Slovenj Gradcu (-24.4 days/50 years), in Vojsko (-22.3 days/50 years) and in Maribor (-21.1 days/50 years). The average annual height of the snow cover is the highest in Kredarica and amounts to 133.4 cm. It is 15.6 cm in Vojsko, 2.6 cm in Šmartno pri Slovenj Gradcu, 2.0 cm in Novo mesto, and everywhere lower than 2 cm at the rest of the meteorological stations discussed. The average winter snow depth is 189.1 cm in Kredarica, 38.8 cm in Vojsko, 8.3 cm in Šmartno pri Slovenj Gradcu, 5.8 cm in Maribor, and the lowest is in Postojna (4.0 cm) and Murska Sobota (3.9 cm). The trend of decreasing average snow cover height in winter is the highest in Vojsko (-32.8 cm/50 years). Among the lower-lying stations, Šmartno pri Slovenj Gradcu (-6.6 cm/50 years), Maribor and Ljubljana-Bežigrad (at both stations -4.8 cm/50 years) and Celje (-4.7 cm/50 years) stand out.
In the article, we used the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model forecast of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology from Hamburg, i.e. the »medium« scenario SSP370, to show the changes in the number of days with snow cover until the end of the 21st century. In Slovenia, in the period 1981-2010, the share of the surface with the number of days with snow cover less than 30 days was 29.8%, while 37.3% of the surface had more than 90 days with snow cover. According to the model used, by the end of the 21st century, the share of the area with snow cover of less than 30 days will expand to almost 90% of the Slovenian territory, while the share of the area with more than 90 days of snow cover will decrease to 6.6% of Slovenia‘s surface. The areas of Julijske Alpe, Karavanke, Kamniško-Savinjske Alpe will have more than 30 days with snow cover, and in smaller patches also in the area of Snežnik, the Western pre-Alpine hills and on Menina.
Ključne riječi
number of days with snow cover; height of snow cover; climate change; Slovenia
Hrčak ID:
325226
URI
Datum izdavanja:
15.12.2024.
Posjeta: 0 *