Original scientific paper
Demographic Conditionality of the New Electoral Boundaries and Parliamentary Outcomes: The Example of the IV Constituency
Monika Komušanac
orcid.org/0000-0002-3131-6679
; Faculty of Croatian Studies, University of Zagreb, Croatia
*
Petar Feletar
orcid.org/0000-0002-3517-9851
; Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Zagreb, Croatia
*
* Corresponding author.
Abstract
According to the share of votes won in 2024, the clear dominance of the HDZ coalition, which won 64 out of a total of 76 LSGUs, is determined in IV. electoral unit. Compared to 2020, the relative election winner in most LSGUs remained unchanged in relation to the 2020 parliamentary cycle. The traditional dichotomous division into Croatian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) in IV. electoral unit weakens from east to west, while the fragmentation of the voters grows in the same direction. Part of Koprivnica-Križevci County, which from 2023 belongs to the IV. electoral unit is more heterogeneous in the political sense due to the strengthening of new political options, in contrast to the traditionally homogeneous area of Osijek-Baranja County and Virovitica-Podravina County with a high percentage dominance of right-wing political parties led by the HDZ. By applying D’Hondt’s method of distributing votes into parliamentary mandates, the electoral outcome of the list was simulated, applying their achieved result in 2024 to the old borders (until 2023). The simulation parameters show how the final election outcome in IV. electoral unit changed only for the leading parties, in this case in favor of the CDU coalition (one mandate more), and to the detriment of the SDP coalition (one mandate less). In other words, the coalition led by the SDP was the biggest winner of the spatial correction of electoral boundaries, while the mentioned changes least favored the coalition with the best absolute and relative results, i.e. CDU’s coalition.
Keywords
D´Hondt method; IV. constituency; elections; proportionality; simulation
Hrčak ID:
325228
URI
Publication date:
15.12.2024.
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