Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5552/crojfe.2025.2456
Assessing Fire Susceptibility of Threatened Plant Species in Temperate Forest Ecosystem of Azerbaijan Using MaxEnt Method
Yusif Abiyev
; Baku State University Faculty of Biology Z.Khalilov 33 AZ1148 Baku AZERBAIJAN
*
Remzi Eker
; Izmir Katip Celebi University Faculty of Forestry 35620 Izmir TÜRKIYE
Ahmet Acil
; Karabuk University Faculty of Forestry 78050 Karabuk TÜRKIYE
Kadir Alperen Coskuner
; Karadeniz Technical University Faculty of Forestry 61080, Trabzon TÜRKIYE
* Dopisni autor.
Sažetak
Natural and human-induced disturbances are major drivers of the decline and loss of vulnerable species worldwide. Among these, fires are particularly disruptive as they can devastate entire ecosystems. Assessing the likelihood and severity of such disturbances on plant communities is crucial for the management and conservation of biodiversity. This study aims to analyze fire susceptibility using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to evaluate the potential impacts of fires on the biodiversity of a lowland forest in Azerbaijan. The research was conducted as part of the project on the evaluation of Red Book species in Azerbaijan based on IUCN categories and criteria. In this study, 21 rare plant species found in the Samur-Yalama National Park (SYNP) were assessed for fire susceptibility, as they have been significantly affected by fires in recent years. The fire susceptibility analysis included 12 driving factors, categorized into topographic, vegetation, and climatic factors, and identified 564 wildfire incidents. Model performance was evaluated using the AUC value, which was 0.855, indicating good model accuracy. Fire susceptibility was classified into three categories: low, moderate, and high. According to the results, 12,642 hectares (60.82%) of the SYNP area fall under low susceptibility, 5532 hectares (26.62%) under moderate susceptibility, and 2611 hectares (12.56%) under high susceptibility. Rare plant species in SYNP were evaluated based on their fire susceptibility. It was found that Alcea kusariensis (Iljin ex Grossh.) Iljin, Anacamptis morio subsp. picta (Loisel.) Jacquet & Scappat., Equisetum hyemale L., Orchis purpurea Huds., Pinus brutia var. eldarica (Medw.) Silba, Platanus orientalis L., Punica granatum L., and Quercus castaneifolia C.A.Mey are located in areas classified as having high susceptibility.
Ključne riječi
fire susceptibility, lowland forests, MaxEnt, vulnerable species
Hrčak ID:
326380
URI
Datum izdavanja:
17.1.2025.
Posjeta: 0 *