Original scientific paper
Population migration and return potential: a case study of the City of Koprivnica
Monika Balija Vincek
orcid.org/0000-0001-7350-2798
; Faculty of Croatian Studies, University of Zagreb, Croatia
*
Rebeka Mesarić Žabčić
; Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb, Croatia
*
Tamara Bodor
; Faculty of Croatian Studies, University of Zagreb, Croatia
*
* Corresponding author.
Abstract
This paper analyses the intensity, characteristics and spatial differentiation of migration processes in the City of Koprivnica in the contemporary period, with particular emphasis on international migration and the return intentions of emigrants. The quantitative part of the research is based on census data and administrative data of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics on in- and out-migration in the period from 2013 to 2023, while the qualitative part was conducted using semi-structured interviews with 17 emigrants from settlements within the City of Koprivnica who currently live in Germany. The results indicate that Koprivnica is characterised by a persistently negative migration balance, with international emigration playing a key role in the overall population decline. Migration losses are most pronounced among the younger working-age population, while immigration, including return migration and the inflow of foreign workers, fails to compensate for the population outflow. Qualitative findings suggest that economic factors, particularly wage differentials and job security, are decisive in emigration decisions and represent a key precondition for potential return. Although respondents express strong emotional and social ties to Koprivnica, return intentions most often remain symbolic due to unfavourable structural conditions in the country of origin. The paper concludes by emphasising the need for integrated demographic and development policies aimed at retaining the young population, encouraging return migration and strengthening local human capital.
Keywords
Koprivnica; migration; emigration; return; return intentions
Hrčak ID:
350986
URI
Publication date:
25.6.2026.
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