Izvorni znanstveni članak
FORECASTING HUMAN EXPOSURE TO ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTANTS IN PORTUGAL
C. Borrego
; CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
E. Sa
; CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
A. Monteiro
; CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
J. Ferreira
; University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
A.I. Miranda
; CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
Sažetak
Air pollution has become one main environmental concern because of its known impact on human health. Aiming to
inform the population about the air they are breathing several air quality modelling systems have been developed and tested
allowing, nowadays, assessing and forecasting air pollution ambient levels in many countries. However, every day, one individual is
exposed to different concentrations of atmospheric pollutants as he/she moves from and to different outdoor and indoor places (the
so-called microenvironments). Therefore, a more efficient way to prevent the population from the health risks caused by air
pollution should be based on exposure rather than air concentrations estimations.
The present study describes the development of a methodology to forecast the human exposure of the Portuguese population, which
is based on air quality forecasts available and validated for Portugal since 2005. To estimate the population exposure the forecasting
results of the air quality modelling system MM5-CHIMERE have been combined with the population spatial distribution over
Portugal and their time-activity patterns, i.e. the fraction of the day time spent in indoor and outdoor places.
The population characterization concerning age, work, type and spent time on occupation/activities, was obtained from the most
recent national census and from available enquiries performed by the National Statistics Institute. A daily exposure estimation
module has been developed gathering all these data and considering empirical indoor/outdoor relations from literature to calculate
the indoor concentrations in each one of the microenvironments considered, namely home, office/school, and leisure activities like
shopping areas, gym, theatre/cinema and restaurants. The results show how this developed modelling system can be useful to
anticipate air pollution episodes and to estimate their effects on human health. This detailed knowledge is a prerequisite for the
development of effective policies to reduce the foreseen adverse impact of air pollution on human health and to act on time.
Ključne riječi
Air quality forecast; human exposure; air pollutants; modelling; human health
Hrčak ID:
64234
URI
Datum izdavanja:
12.12.2008.
Posjeta: 664 *