Preliminary communication

https://doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v25i6.338

Short-Term Passenger Demand Forecasting Using Univariate Time Series Theory

Ondrej Cyprich ; University of Žilina
Vladimír Konečný ; University of Žilina
Katarína Kiliánová ; University of Žilina

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to identify and analyse the forecasting performance of the model of passenger demand for suburban bus transport time series, which satisfies the statistical significance of its parameters and randomness of its residuals. Box-Jenkins, exponential smoothing and multiple linear regression models are used in order to design a more accurate and reliable model compared the ones used nowadays. Forecasting accuracy of the models is evaluated by comparative analysis of the calculated mean absolute percent errors of different approaches to forecasting. In accordance with the main goal of the paper was identified the ARIMA model, which fulfils almost all statistical criterions with an exception of the model residuals normality. In spite of the limitation, the best forecasting abilities of identified model have been proven in comparison with other approaches to forecasting in the paper. The published findings of research will have positive influence on increasing the forecasting accuracy in the process of passenger demand forecasting.

Keywords

passenger demand; demand modelling; short-term demand forecasting; suburb bus transport

Hrčak ID:

114435

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/114435

Publication date:

16.12.2013.

Visits: 2.337 *