Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v32i1.3008
Vehicle Travel Time Estimation Using Sequence Prediction
Gültekin Gündüz
; Sabanci University, Istanbul, Turkey
Tankut Acarman
orcid.org/0000-0003-4169-1189
; Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Galatasaray University, Istanbul, Turkey
Abstract
This paper proposes a region-based travel time and traffic speed prediction method using sequence prediction. Floating Car Data collected from 8,317 vehicles during 34 days are used for evaluation purposes. Twelve districts are chosen and the spatio-temporal non-linear relations are learned with Recurrent Neural Networks. Time estimation of the total trip is solved by travel time estimation of the divided sub-trips, which are constituted between two consecutive GNSS measurement data. The travel time and final speed of sub-trips are learned with Long Short-term Memory cells using sequence prediction. A sequence is defined by including the day of the week meta-information, dynamic information about vehicle route start and end positions, and average travel speed of the road segment that has been traversed by the vehicle. The final travel time is estimated for this sequence. The sequence-based prediction shows promising results, outperforms function mapping and non-parametric linear velocity change based methods in terms of root-mean-square error and mean absolute error metrics.
Keywords
Hrčak ID:
234270
URI
Publication date:
27.1.2020.
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