Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2106266
How consumer confidence is reshaping the outbound tourism expenditure in China? A lesson for strategy makers!
Chi-Wei Su
Muhammad Umar
Tsangyao Chang
Abstract
Tourism is a rapidly rising sector that contributes significantly to
economies. In this paper, we apply a bootstrap full-sample causality
test, parameter stability test, and quantile-on-quantile approach test
so as to examine the relationship between consumer confidence
index (CCI) and outward tourism expenditure (OTE) for the period
between 1998:Q1 to 2021:Q4. The results of the findings reflect that
CCI tends to exert a positive impact on the OTE in most of the quantiles.
This essentially implies that consumer confidence in China can
act as a compound for outbound tourism expenditure in nature.
Therefore, it can be affirmed that the OTE tends not to have an effect
on the CCI, thus extending the implication that an alteration in the
private outbound tourism spending in most likely to be insufficient
for the modification of the factor of consumer confidence. To ensure
the robustness of the results, we have employed the quantile-based
granger causality to investigate the causal relationship in quantile
between CCI on the OTE. The results of this study tend to educate
the foreign tourism policymakers, while at the same time making
forecasts of the tourism arrivals from China. Policymakers can then
plan their tourism strategies, ideally including the CCI.
Keywords
Causality; China; consumer confidence index; outward tourism expenditure; quantile
Hrčak ID:
306448
URI
Publication date:
31.3.2023.
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