Preliminary communication
https://doi.org/10.32676/n.12.1.7
Structural Heterogeneity of European Union Member States: A Multivariate Analysis and Structural Divergence Index (2015–2024)
Zlatko Čehulić
orcid.org/0000-0002-1817-2471
; Croatian National Bank
Rajka Hrbić
; Croatian National Bank
Abstract
This paper analyses EU structural heterogeneity (2015–2024) using a decadal panel
perspective to identify persistent macroeconomic profiles. The analysis covers six indicators:
gross domestic product per capita, unemployment rate, harmonised index of consumer prices
(HICP), fiscal balance, public debt, and accumulated balance of payments. Cluster analyses
(hierarchical and K-means) applied to mean values for 2015–2024 yield a stable classification
of EU economies into distinct structural groups. Principal component analysis (PCA) is then
used to reduce dimensionality and identify the underlying economic dimensions shaping these
clusters. A key contribution of the paper is the introduction of the Structural Divergence Index
(SDI), which quantifies within-cluster heterogeneity by measuring Euclidean distances from
cluster centroids across all variables. SDI results reveal notable internal variation, with some
countries closely aligned and others persistent outliers. These findings indicate that EU
macroeconomic heterogeneity appears not only between clusters but also through pronounced
divergences within them. The proposed approach offers a new instrument for assessing
cohesion in an integrated economic area and provides relevant implications for designing
convergence policies, fiscal rules, and targeted structural reforms.
Keywords
structural heterogeneity; European Union; macroeconomic indicators; cluster analysis; principal component analysis (PCA)
Hrčak ID:
349908
URI
Publication date:
31.12.2026.
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