Albanian Challenges towards an Efficient Pension System
Ključne riječi:
Pensions, predicting, actuarial model, Inflation rate, demographic structure, unemploymentSažetak
Pensions’ reform in most Western, Central and Eastern European countries is one of the most important topics relevant for their future development. The main objective of this study is to assist in predicting the future of the pension scheme in Albania through actuarial projections related to demographic structure, unemployment, number of contributors and beneficiaries. Through this study, we intended to predict what would be the financial effect of two options. First, we investigate the likely outcome if Albania continues with the same scheme as currently used. Second, we investigate the likely outcome when a new contributory scheme is being implemented. The methodology used for implementing the actuarial model is based on the construction of the population projections using the RUP system (Rural Urban Projection), a system developed by the Census Bureau of the United States of America, while the economic performance forecasts, i.e.: GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate or expected indexation of wages and pensions, are be sourced by the Albanian Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund. The study concludes and recommends some of the steps for reforming the pension scheme in Albania based on the experience of other countries and the likely financial effect to the state budget in case of the implementation of the new scheme.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Reference
Albanian Government (2017), “Economic and fiscal program 2017-2019”, available at: http://www.qbz.gov.al/botime/fletore_zyrtare/2016/PDF-2016/261-2016.pdf (17 August 2018)
Blake, D. (1992), Modeling pension fund investment behavior, Routledge, London.
Baldwin, B. (2009), “Research Study on the Canadian Retirement Income System”, Baldwin Consulting, Canada, available at: https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/consultations/pension/dec09report.pdf/ (17 August 2018)
Centre for Research and Policy Making (2005), “Pension System Reform in Macedonia”, Occasional Paper No. 7, available at: http://www.crpm.org.mk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Occasional-Paper-N7.pdf/ (17 August 2018)
Deacon, B., Stubbs, P. (2005), “The Making of Social Policy in South-Eastern Europe: Theories, Methods, Politics, in Kuhnle, S. (Ed.) Social Policy development in South Eastern Europe: outside influences and domestic forces, Bergen, Stein Rokkan Centre for Social Studies, Norway, pp. 27-52.
Eurostat (2013), “European Social statistics”, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-pocketbooks/-/KS-FP-13-001 (17 August 2018)
Fiche, C. (2017), “Pension Projections exercise 2018”, Germany, available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/final_country_fiche_de.pdf/ (17 August 2018)
Guxho, A. (2014), “Pension scheme in Albania and actuarial forecasting”, Doctoral Dissertation, University of Tirana.
Holzmann, R., MacKellar L., Repansek J. (2008), “Pension Reform in Southeastern Europe Linking to Labor and Financial Market Reforms”, available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2587/ (17 August 2018)
ILO (2011), “ILO estimates and projections of the economically active population 1990-2020”, available at: http://laborsta.ilo.org/applv8/data/EAPEP/v6/ILO_EAPEP_methodology_2011.pdf (17 August 2018)
IOM - Country profile Albania (2017), available at: https://www.albania.iom.int/albania/ (17 August 2018)
INSTAT (2011), “Census 2011”, available at: http://www.instat.gov.al/media/3058/main_results__population_and_housing_census_2011.pdf/ (17 August 2018)
INSTAT (2017), available at: http://www.instat.gov.al/al/temat/tregu-i-pun%C3%ABs-dhe-arsimi/pun%C3%ABsimi-dhe-papun%C3%ABsia/#tab2/ (17 August 2018)
INSTAT (2018), available at: http://www.instat.gov.al/al/temat/treguesit-demografik%C3%AB-dhe-social%C3%AB/popullsia/publikimet/2018/popullsia-e-shqip%C3%ABris%C3%AB-1-janar-2018/ (17 August 2018)
ISSH (2017), available at: http://www.issh.gov.al/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/issh-per-tu-pare-shqip-ang.pdf (17 August 2018)
Lama, A. (2008), “Social inclusion and social protection in Albania”, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=4446&langId=en (17 August 2018)
Ministry of social wellbeing and youth (2014), “Document of Pension policy”, available at: http://www.monitor.al/multimedia/Dokumenti%20i%20Politikave%20te%20Pensioneve.pdf (17 August 2018)
Schwarz, A. (2006), “Pension System Reforms”, The World Bank, available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOCIALPROTECTION/Resources/SP-Discussion-papers/Pensions-DP/0608.pdf/ (17 August 2018)
Xhumari, M. (2000), “Welfare programs for unemployment income in Albania”, avaiable at:
