Testing Phillips Curve in Sweden
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54820/entrenova-2023-0003Ključne reči:
Phillips curve, inflaion, unemployment, Sweden, monetary policy, econometric modelApstrakt
The study aims to research the correlation between unemployment and inflation in Sweden between March 2020 - November 2021 to provide further insight into the validity of the Phillips curve. Previous research has found a contradictive relationship between unemployment and inflation. In addition, shifting market trends with lower globalization and higher inflation provide attention to evaluate the Philips curve. The focus is on Sweden because it is a small country with a high level of dependency on trade and technology. For that purpose, an econometric analysis has been applied to Swedish unemployment and inflation data between March 2020 - November 2021 to generate the correlation and examine the validity of the Phillips curve. The results indicate a weak linear relationship, suggesting that other variables than inflation have a more significant effect on unemployment than inflation. A possible explanation might be the inflation target that the Swedish Central Bank (Riksbanken) implemented in 1993, which contributed to a stable inflation level until 2021
Reference
Amelius, H. (2022). BNP - Sverige. Ekonomifakta. Available online: https://www.ekonomifakta.se/fakta/ekonomi/tillvaxt/bnp---sverige/ (2022-10-29)
Arbetslöshet, Available online: globalis.se (2022-10-24)
Bhattari, K. (2016). Unemployment-inflation trade-offs in OECD countries. Economic modeling 58, 93–103. ScienceDirect.
Borio, C., Piti, D., Mikael, J. & Phurichai, R. (2018). Monetary policy in the grip of a pincer movement. BIS Working Papers 706, Bank for International Settlements.
Bryman, A. (2011). Samhällsvetenskapliga metoder. Malmö: Liber.
Debelle, G. & Laxton, D. (1997). Is the Phillips curve a curve: some evidence for Canada, New Zealand, and the United States. IMF staff papers 44, 249–282.
Diehn, S.A. (2022). Has globalization passed its peak? Deutsche Welle. Available online: https://www.dw.com/en/has-globalization-passed-its-peak/a-61325661 (2022-10-23)
Ekonomifakta (2023). Available online: https://www.ekonomifakta.se/fakta/arbetsmarknad/arbetsloshet/arbetsloshet/?graph=/25554/1,2,3/all/ (2023-9-2)
Esaiasson, P. Giljam, M. Oscarsson, H. & Wängnerud, L. (2012). Metodpraktikan: konsten att studera samhälle, individ och marknad. Stockholm: Norstedts juridik.
Forsberg, O. (2021). Så mycket lån har en svensk i genomsnitt. Tillväxt Sverige. Available online: https://www.xn--tillvxtsverige-9hb.se/sa-mycket-lan-har-en-svensk-igenomsnitt/ (2022-10-29)
Frohm, E. (2019). Sambandet mellan resursutnyttjande och inflation: ett mikrodataperspektiv. Sveriges Riksbank. Available online: https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/ekonomiska- kommentarer/svenska/2019/sambandet-mellan-resursutnyttjande-och-inflation-ettmikrodataperspektiv.pdf (2022-10-23)
Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. American economic review 58, 1–17.
Globalis (2022). Sverige. Svenska FN-förbundet. Available online: https://www.globalis.se/Laender/sverige (2022-10-29)
Gordon, R. (1970). The recent acceleration of inflation and its lessons for the future. Brookings papers on economic activity 1, 8–47.
Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak,J. (2022). Financial Econometrics: Problems, Models and Methods, Princeton University Press, New Jersey, USA.
Ho, S-Y. & Njindan Iyke, B. N. (2018). Unemployment and inflation: evidence of a nonlinear Phillips curve in the eurozone. The Journal of developing, area 53.
Hoover, D. K. (2008). Philips Curve. Econlib. Available online: https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html (2022-02-04)
Kennedy, P. (2008). A guide to Econometrics. New Jersey, Wiley Blackwell.
King, R.G., Stock J.H. & Watson M.W. (1995). Temporal instability of the unemploymentinflation relationship. Economic perspectives 19, pp. 2–11.
Körner, Svante & Wahlgren, Lars. (2015). Statistiska metoder. Lund.
Krantz, M. (2022). Elpriset: en tsunamivåg på väg mot företagarna. Företagarna Available online: https://www.foretagarna.se/nyheter/riks/2022/september/elpriset-en-tsunamivag-pa-vag-motforetagen (2022-10-25)
Laxton, D., Meredith, G. & Rose. D. (1995). Asymmetric effects of economic activity: evidence and policy implication. IMF staff papers 42, 344–374.
Newbold, P., Carlson, W. L. & Thorne, B. (2020). Statistics for business and economics, UK, Pearson Education Limited.
Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips curves, expectations of inflation, and optimal unemployment over time. Economica 34, 254-281.
Phillips, A.W. (1958). The relationship between the unemployment rate and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Economica 25, 258-299.
Picardo, E. (2022). How Inflation and Unemployment are related. Investopedia. Available online: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/081515/howinflationandunemployment-are-related.asp (2022-10-20)
Riksbanken (2018). Inflationsmålet. Sveriges Riksbank. Available online: https://www.riksbank.se/sv/penningpolitik/inflationsmalet/ (2022-10-20)
Riksbanken (2018a). 1992 – Räntan 500 % - Kronan flyter. Sveriges Riksbank. Available online: https://www.riksbank.se/sv/om-riksbanken/historia/historisktidslinje/19001999/rantan-500----kronan-flyter/ (2022-10-20)
Riksbanken (2018b). Historisk inflationsmålet. Sveriges Riksbank. Available online: https://www.riksbank.se/sv/penningpolitik/inflationsmalet/historik-inflationsmalet/ (2022-1020)
Samuelson, P.A. & Solow, R.M. (1960). Analytical aspect of anti-inflation policy. American economic review 50, 177–194.
SCB (2022). Sveriges befolkning. Statistikmyndigheten (SCB). Available online: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/sverige-i-siffror/manniskorna-i-sverige/sveriges-befolkning/ (2022-10-29)
SCB (2023). Statistikmyndigheten (SCB). Available online: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/priser-ockonsumtion/konsumentprisindex/konsumentprisindex-kpi/pong/tabell-och-diagram/konsumentprisindex-med-fast-ranta-kpif-och-kpif-xe/kpif-12-manadersforandring/ (2023-9-2)
Seyfried, W. L. & Ewing, B. T. (2001). Inflation uncertainty and unemployment: some international evidence. The American economist 45, 33-39.
Statistikmyndigheten. (2022). Inflationen i Sverige. SCB. Available online: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/sverige-i-siffror/samhallets-ekonomi/inflation/ (2022-01-29)
Torstensson, S. (2022). Arbetslöshet. Ekonomifakta. Available online: https://www.ekonomifakta.se/fakta/arbetsmarknad/arbetsloshet/arbetsloshet/ (2022-01-29)
Yellen, J. (2015). Inflation dynamics and monetary policy. Federal Reserve. Available online: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150924a.htm (2022-10-24)
##submission.downloads##
Objavljeno
Kako citirati
Broj časopisa
Sekcija
Licenca
Sva prava zadržana (c) 2024 Vanja Šimićević, Emil Lekavski
Ovaj rad je pod Creative Commons Autorstvo-Nekomercijalno 4.0 Internacionalna licenca.