Divide and Rule: Economic Voting in Ethnically Divided Societies – The Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract

While it is generally acknowledged that the economy has an effect on voting behaviour, there has been little work done on that subject in multi-ethnic societies. Ethnic divisions provide incentives for political participation along ethnic lines. This paper investigates the extent to which unemployment affects both voter turnout and the electoral success of incumbent parties in a multi-ethnic environment. Using data based on national electoral results in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the empirical analysis shows that the effect of unemployment on voting behaviour is moderated by the level of ethnic division in the municipality. Economic voting is present in more homogeneous areas, in which unemployment seems to account for more electoral mobilization and less vote for the incumbent parties. However, the mechanism is not working in more ethnically heterogeneous areas. These findings suggest that ethnic divisions are encouraging lack of accountability from the incumbent parties and exculpate them for poor economic performance.