Izvorni znanstveni članak
IS THERE A GRIČ ATTRACTOR?
Nedjeljka Brzović
; Meteorological and Hydrological Service Grič 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Sažetak
In this study the time series of monthly averages of temperature, cloudiness and solar radiation are analyzed to investigate the chaotic properties of the local climate, and the possibility of the estimation of an minimum number of independent variables necessary to model the time evolution of the underlying climate system. The analysis of observations is based on a statistical procedure, called "correlation algorithm", leading to the measures of dimensionality or degrees of freedom which control the underlying dynamics. The results show that there is no indication of the existence of a lowdimensional attractor of the Zagreb-Grič time series.
Within a climate system, it is possible to isolate a three-variable subsystem, controlling the large amplitudes of the local climate. These are: temperature, cloudiness and solar radiation. The existence
of autocorrelation in the time series, due to solar radiation, has enabled the detection of a low-dimensional attractor. When the seasonal cycle has been theoretically filtered out of the series, the correlation disapped, as well as the low-dimensional climate subsystem.
Ključne riječi
climate attractor; climate system
Hrčak ID:
67830
URI
Datum izdavanja:
18.12.1996.
Posjeta: 1.096 *