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Nafta i Plin, Vol. 42. No. 174.-175., 2022.

Stručni rad

Transformation strategy of oil comapnies – why, whan and how?

Gordana Sekulić orcid id orcid.org/0000-0002-8193-6112
Gordana Sekulić orcid id orcid.org/0000-0002-8193-6112

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Sažetak

The reduction of oil consumption, especially in developed countries and the ending of its dominance in the 2030-2035 years, with extremely dynamic growth in renewable energy consumption and energy efficiency, are a clear signal for oil companies to clearly identify, rapidly implement and monitor the achievements of development transitional low-carbon strategies. EU Green Deal implementation, as well as the weak link between the growth of the economy and economic oil potential due to high growth and oil price shocks, the need and responsibility for its own decarbonisation, are significant challenges, but also opportunities for the oil sector. Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, as a sovereign state that has opted to become a member of the EU and NATO, and consequently sanctions against Russia, also has implications for the oil and gas industry, security and supply costs of energy.
The dynamics and volume of what was done by the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century is not enough for oil companies transition towards net zero CO2 emissions in 2050. They are transforming in energy companies by investing in renewable energy sources (RES) and electricity, then in non fossil fuels, electromobility, and new technologies, while facing strong competition in the electricity market. That is reason why the companies are using models of alliance with energy companies, thereby reducing the risks of large investments in new technologies and high capital projects. It is investments in new technologies (CCUS, hydrogen, biofuels, electromobility, offshore wind farms, etc.) that could ensure their long-term successful operations and strong position in the energy market. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a decrease in oil and gas supplies and a high rise in prices, but also the abandonment of energy resources in Russia by oil and gas companies. Such (in)opportunities are an accelerating factor in their transition to low-carbon energy.
It is underestimated that companies have enough forces (financial, market, human) and opportunities (rapid growth of the RES market, electromobility) that will allow them to accelerate the transition and overcome the challenges of decarbonizing energy and the economy. However, the key inputs and outputs of the existing and future activities of most oil companies are not yet publicly known, as financial and other reports contain only distributed data into traditional businesses like: oil and gas exploration and production, refineries and marketing, petrochemicals, retail, LNG, etc., and data for "other“ (low carbon) activities are very modest. This worries investors who are looking for concrete actions and reporting to achieve net zero emissions in the form of indicators that will evaluate the realization of strategies. For this reason, one of the possible solutions for better planning and reporting on greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and activities is seen in the application of the so-called net zero standards for oil companies.

Ključne riječi

oil companies; strategy; transformation; planning; reporting

Hrčak ID:

293647

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/293647

Datum izdavanja:

15.1.2023.

Podaci na drugim jezicima: hrvatski

Posjeta: 521 *

License (open-access, URI licencije):

Naziv licencije, npr. CC-BY

License (open-access):

Uvjeti korištenja (tekst) na hrvatskom

License (open-access):

Uvjeti korištenja (tekst) na engleskom

Date received: DD MM YYYY

Date accepted: DD MM YYYY

Date: DD MM YYYY

Publication date: 15 January 2023

Volume: 42

Issue: 174. - 175.

Pages: 33-43

DOI:

Funded by: Kratica

Funded by: Naziv projekta

Funded by: Kratica financijera (EC, HRZZ, MZOS, MZO, ...)

Funded by: Linija financiranja

Funded by: Pravna nadleznost

Award ID: code

Article Information (continued)

Categories:

Subject: Stručni rad

Categories:

Subject: Professional Paper

Keywords:

Keyword: naftne kompanije

Keyword: strategija

Keyword: transformacija

Keyword: planiranje

Keyword: izvještavanje

Keywords:

Keyword: oil companies

Keyword: strategy

Keyword: transformation

Keyword: planning

Keyword: reporting

Transformacijska strategija naftnih kompanija-- zašto, kada i kako?

Translated Title (en): Transformation strategy of oil comapnies – why, whan and how?

[ORCID] Gordana Sekulić[1]

Email: gordana2013@gmail.com

 

energetski analitičar energy analyst Zagreb

[ORCID] Gordana Sekulić[*][1]

 

energetski analitičar energy analyst Zagreb

Author notes:

Correspondence to: [*] Gordana Sekulić, Zagreb gordana2013@gmail.com

Abstract

Smanjenje potrošnje nafte, posebno u razvijenim državama i prestanak njezine dominacije 2030.-2035.-tih godina, uz izrazito dinamičan rast potrošnje obnovljivih izvora energije i energetske učinkovitosti, jasan su signal naftnim kompanijama da jasno utvrde, ubrzano provode i prate ostvarenja razvojnih tranzicijskih niskougljičnih strategija. Provođenje Zelenog plana EU, slaba povezanost rasta gospodarstva s ekonomskim naftnim potencijalom zbog visokog rasta i šokova cijena nafte, potreba i odgovornost za vlastitom dekarbonizacijom značajni su izazovi, ali i prilike za naftni sektor. Invazija Rusije na Ukrajinu 24. veljače 2022., kao suverenu državu koja se opredijelila postati članica EU i NATO saveza, te posljedično sankcije prema Rusiji, ima posljedice i na naftno-plinsku industriju, sigurnost i troškove opskrbe energijom. Dinamika i obujam onog što je napravljeno do početka trećeg desetljeća 21. stoljeća nije dovoljno za tranziciju naftnih kompanija prema neto nultoj emisiji CO2 u 2050. One se transformiraju u energetske kompanije ulažući u obnovljive izvore energije (OIE) i električnu energiju, zatim u niskougljična goriva, elektromobilnost te nove energetske tehnologije, pritom se suočavajući s jakom konkurencijom na tržištu električne energije Zbog toga se koriste modeli savezništva s drugim kompanijama čime se smanjuju rizici velikih ulaganja u nove tehnologije i visoko kapitalne projekte. Upravo bi ulaganja u nove tehnologije (CCUS, vodika, biogoriva, pučinske vjetroelektrane, i dr.) mogla osigurati njihovo dugoročno uspješno poslovanje i jak položaj na energetskom tržištu. Invazija Rusije na Ukrajinu ima za posljedicu smanjenje isporuka nafte i plin te visoki rast cijena, ali i napuštanje energetskih resursa u Rusije od strane naftno-plinskih kompanija. Takve (ne)prilike su ubrzavajući čimbenik njihove tranzicije prema niskougljičnoj energiji. Procjenjuje se da kompanije imaju dovoljno snaga (financijskih, tržišnih, ljudskih) i prilika (brzi rast tržišta OIE, elektromobilnosti) koje će im omogućiti ubrzanje tranzicije i savladavanje izazova dekarbonizacije energije i gospodarstva. Međutim, još nisu javno poznati ključni inputi i outputi postojećih i budućih djelatnosti većine naftnih kompanije jer financijska i druga izvješća sadržavaju samo razdijeljene podatke na tradicionalne poslove kao što su: istraživanje i proizvodnja nafte i plina, rafinerije i marketing, petrokemija, maloprodaja, UPP i sl., a podaci za „ostale“ (niskougljične) djelatnosti su vrlo skromni. To zabrinjava investitore koji traže konkretne akcije i izvještavanje za postizanje neto nultih emisija u obliku indikatora kojima će se evaluirati ostvarivanje strategija. Zbog toga se kao jedno od mogućih rješenje boljeg planiranja i izvještavanja o ciljevima i aktivnostima za smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova vidi u primjeni tzv. neto nultih standarda za naftne kompanije.

Translated Abstract

The reduction of oil consumption, especially in developed countries and the ending of its dominance in the 2030-2035 years, with extremely dynamic growth in renewable energy consumption and energy efficiency, are a clear signal for oil companies to clearly identify, rapidly implement and monitor the achievements of development transitional low-carbon strategies. EU Green Deal implementation, as well as the weak link between the growth of the economy and economic oil potential due to high growth and oil price shocks, the need and responsibility for its own decarbonisation, are significant challenges, but also opportunities for the oil sector. Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, as a sovereign state that has opted to become a member of the EU and NATO, and consequently sanctions against Russia, also has implications for the oil and gas industry, security, and supply costs of energy. The dynamics and volume of what was done by the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century is not enough for oil companies transition towards net zero CO2 emissions in 2050. They are transforming in energy companies by investing in renewable energy sources (RES) and electricity, then in non-fossil fuels, electromobility, and new technologies, while facing strong competition in the electricity market. That is reason why the companies are using models of alliance with energy companies, thereby reducing the risks of large investments in new technologies and high capital projects. It is investments in new technologies (CCUS, hydrogen, biofuels, electromobility, offshore wind farms, etc.) that could ensure their long-term successful operations and strong position in the energy market. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a decrease in oil and gas supplies and a high rise in prices, but also the abandonment of energy resources in Russia by oil and gas companies. Such (in)opportunities are an accelerating factor in their transition to low-carbon energy. It is underestimated that companies have enough forces (financial, market, human) and opportunities (rapid growth of the RES market, electromobility) that will allow them to accelerate the transition and overcome the challenges of decarbonizing energy and the economy. However, the key inputs and outputs of the existing and future activities of most oil companies are not yet publicly known, as financial and other reports contain only distributed data into traditional businesses like: oil and gas exploration and production, refineries and marketing, petrochemicals, retail, LNG, etc., and data for "other“(low carbon) activities are very modest. This worries investors who are looking for concrete actions and reporting to achieve net zero emissions in the form of indicators that will evaluate the realization of strategies. For this reason, one of the possible solutions for better planning and reporting on greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and activities is seen in the application of the so-called net zero standards for oil companies.

Uvod

Globalno opredjeljenje prema politici i mjerama smanjenja negativnih učinaka na klimatske promjene pokreće trendove smanjenja potrošnje nafte i plina te ukupne energije uz povećanje energetske učinkovitosti. Pritom će potrošnja nafte i plina padati brže od ukupne energije i to posebno u razvijenijim regijama, uključivo i EU, koja je Zelenim planom (COM, 2019) i dokumentom REPowerEU (COM, 2022) utvrdila dostizanje neto nulte emisije CO2 do 2050. uz više od 55% njegovog smanjenja do 2030. To je ujedno jedan od najsnažnijih poticaja za transformaciju i novi razvoj naftnih kompanija . Zbog toga su u radu najprije analizirani globalni, EU i hrvatski aspekti vezani uz predviđanja potražnje za naftom i plinom kako bi se približno ocijenilo vrijeme kada bi naftne kompanije trebale postići značajnije prihode i od niskougljičnih djelatnosti. U radu se daje kratki osvrt i na učinke pandemije korona virusa u 2020. i invazije Rusije na Ukrajinu početkom 2022. koji su bitan čimbenik kretanja u energetici i gospodarstvu posljednjih godina. Analiza kretanja ekonomskog potencijala potrošnje nafte (mjerenog cijenama i potrošnjom) i bruto domaćeg proizvoda (kao pokazatelja gospodarskih kretanja) izrađena je kako bi se utvrdili bitni odnosi i trendovi koji su već duže vrijeme ukazivali na slabljenje povezanosti rasta naftnog potencijala i razvoja gospodarstva, između ostalog, i zbog snažnog rasta i šokova cijena nafte. Pritom kompanije nisu razvile dovoljno učinkovite strategije ovladavanja prijetnjama koje su se kontinuirano pojavljivale (promjenjivost cijena, politički rizici, i dr.), a posebno na očite namjere vlada da supstituiraju fosilne izvore energije obnovljivim izvorima (OIE). Analiza čimbenika snaga i slabosti naftnih kompanija za transformaciju prema energetskim i drugim djelatnostima imala je za cilj ocijeniti unutarnje potencijale kompanija za transformacijom, a sagledavanje čimbenika prijetnji i prilika trebalo je poslužiti za ocjenu vanjskog okruženja na mogućnosti tranzicije. Prikazani su do sada uočeni glavni pravci, strategije i projekti tranzicije naftnih kompanija s primjerima. Kao doprinos kvalitetnom planiranju i praćenju ostvarivanja ciljeva strategija u vezi emisija kao strateškog globalnog zadatka prikazani su neki standardi-indikatori predloženi od Institucionalne investitorske grupa za klimatske promjene u suradnji s naftnim kompanijama i drugim grupama za zaštitu klime i investicija.

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