Transformacijska strategija naftnih kompanija-- zašto, kada i kako?

Abstract

Smanjenje potrošnje nafte, posebno u razvijenim državama i prestanak njezine dominacije 2030.-2035.-tih godina, uz izrazito dinamičan rast potrošnje obnovljivih izvora energije i energetske učinkovitosti, jasan su signal naftnim kompanijama da jasno utvrde, ubrzano provode i prate ostvarenja razvojnih tranzicijskih niskougljičnih strategija. Provođenje Zelenog plana EU, slaba povezanost rasta gospodarstva s ekonomskim naftnim potencijalom zbog visokog rasta i šokova cijena nafte, potreba i odgovornost za vlastitom dekarbonizacijom značajni su izazovi, ali i prilike za naftni sektor. Invazija Rusije na Ukrajinu 24. veljače 2022., kao suverenu državu koja se opredijelila postati članica EU i NATO saveza, te posljedično sankcije prema Rusiji, ima posljedice i na naftno-plinsku industriju, sigurnost i troškove opskrbe energijom. Dinamika i obujam onog što je napravljeno do početka trećeg desetljeća 21. stoljeća nije dovoljno za tranziciju naftnih kompanija prema neto nultoj emisiji CO2 u 2050. One se transformiraju u energetske kompanije ulažući u obnovljive izvore energije (OIE) i električnu energiju, zatim u niskougljična goriva, elektromobilnost te nove energetske tehnologije, pritom se suočavajući s jakom konkurencijom na tržištu električne energije Zbog toga se koriste modeli savezništva s drugim kompanijama čime se smanjuju rizici velikih ulaganja u nove tehnologije i visoko kapitalne projekte. Upravo bi ulaganja u nove tehnologije (CCUS, vodika, biogoriva, pučinske vjetroelektrane, i dr.) mogla osigurati njihovo dugoročno uspješno poslovanje i jak položaj na energetskom tržištu. Invazija Rusije na Ukrajinu ima za posljedicu smanjenje isporuka nafte i plin te visoki rast cijena, ali i napuštanje energetskih resursa u Rusije od strane naftno-plinskih kompanija. Takve (ne)prilike su ubrzavajući čimbenik njihove tranzicije prema niskougljičnoj energiji. Procjenjuje se da kompanije imaju dovoljno snaga (financijskih, tržišnih, ljudskih) i prilika (brzi rast tržišta OIE, elektromobilnosti) koje će im omogućiti ubrzanje tranzicije i savladavanje izazova dekarbonizacije energije i gospodarstva. Međutim, još nisu javno poznati ključni inputi i outputi postojećih i budućih djelatnosti većine naftnih kompanije jer financijska i druga izvješća sadržavaju samo razdijeljene podatke na tradicionalne poslove kao što su: istraživanje i proizvodnja nafte i plina, rafinerije i marketing, petrokemija, maloprodaja, UPP i sl., a podaci za „ostale“ (niskougljične) djelatnosti su vrlo skromni. To zabrinjava investitore koji traže konkretne akcije i izvještavanje za postizanje neto nultih emisija u obliku indikatora kojima će se evaluirati ostvarivanje strategija. Zbog toga se kao jedno od mogućih rješenje boljeg planiranja i izvještavanja o ciljevima i aktivnostima za smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova vidi u primjeni tzv. neto nultih standarda za naftne kompanije.

Translated Abstract

The reduction of oil consumption, especially in developed countries and the ending of its dominance in the 2030-2035 years, with extremely dynamic growth in renewable energy consumption and energy efficiency, are a clear signal for oil companies to clearly identify, rapidly implement and monitor the achievements of development transitional low-carbon strategies. EU Green Deal implementation, as well as the weak link between the growth of the economy and economic oil potential due to high growth and oil price shocks, the need and responsibility for its own decarbonisation, are significant challenges, but also opportunities for the oil sector. Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, as a sovereign state that has opted to become a member of the EU and NATO, and consequently sanctions against Russia, also has implications for the oil and gas industry, security, and supply costs of energy. The dynamics and volume of what was done by the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century is not enough for oil companies transition towards net zero CO2 emissions in 2050. They are transforming in energy companies by investing in renewable energy sources (RES) and electricity, then in non-fossil fuels, electromobility, and new technologies, while facing strong competition in the electricity market. That is reason why the companies are using models of alliance with energy companies, thereby reducing the risks of large investments in new technologies and high capital projects. It is investments in new technologies (CCUS, hydrogen, biofuels, electromobility, offshore wind farms, etc.) that could ensure their long-term successful operations and strong position in the energy market. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a decrease in oil and gas supplies and a high rise in prices, but also the abandonment of energy resources in Russia by oil and gas companies. Such (in)opportunities are an accelerating factor in their transition to low-carbon energy. It is underestimated that companies have enough forces (financial, market, human) and opportunities (rapid growth of the RES market, electromobility) that will allow them to accelerate the transition and overcome the challenges of decarbonizing energy and the economy. However, the key inputs and outputs of the existing and future activities of most oil companies are not yet publicly known, as financial and other reports contain only distributed data into traditional businesses like: oil and gas exploration and production, refineries and marketing, petrochemicals, retail, LNG, etc., and data for "other“(low carbon) activities are very modest. This worries investors who are looking for concrete actions and reporting to achieve net zero emissions in the form of indicators that will evaluate the realization of strategies. For this reason, one of the possible solutions for better planning and reporting on greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and activities is seen in the application of the so-called net zero standards for oil companies.