Review article
https://doi.org/10.21861/HGG.2016.78.01.03
Scenario Method in Spatial Research and Planning
Petra Radeljak Kaufmann
orcid.org/0000-0003-2738-4035
; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Department of Geography, Zagreb, Croatia
Abstract
With the goal of analysing the forms of scenarios relevant for spatial research and planning, and ways in which the scenario method is contextually used at different spatial levels, a wide encompassing literature review was conducted in relation to typologies and examples of scenario method usage. Given the spatial and temporal frame, the purpose and procedure of scenario construction and resulting scenarios, eleven scenario studies in European countries and nine studies in other countries, described in published academic papers, were selected for closer analysis. On the basis of analysis of scenario typologies, underlying scenarios were recognised: a) explorative, descriptive, forecasting – normative, anticipatory, backcasting; b) qualitative – quantitative; c) expert – participatory; d) baseline – policy; and e) other types of scenarios. The analysis of selected examples of scenario method usage showed especially: the presence of the scenario method in different countries on different spatial levels; relevance in evaluating of alternatives of possible future developments and providing a firm ground for strategies and specific planning and policy measures; connections of the method to the integral approach to spatial development, but also to regionally and locally specific topics; the role of scenarios as links between environmental science research and spatial planning.
Keywords
scenario method; scenario types; spatial research; spatial planning
Hrčak ID:
160209
URI
Publication date:
21.6.2016.
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