Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1638289
Socioeconomic aspects of long-term unemployment in the context of the ageing population of Europe: the case of Poland
Wioletta Grzenda
; Institute of Statistics and Demography, Collegium of Economic Analysis, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland
Abstract
In view of the ageing populations of Europe, an important current challenge for labour markets is to increase the professional activity of those social groups whose participation in the labour market is insufficient. This work focuses on people unemployed for 12 months or more. The main purpose of this study is designation of those social groups which have the greatest problems with getting out of long-term unemployment, and assessment of the consequences of long-term unemployment, depending on its duration, in the context of the ageing society. We have investigated this problem using the example of Poland, which suffers from particularly low fertility rates. In this study, data from the Labour Force Survey (L.F.S.) for Poland have been used to model the duration of long-term unemployment. In the analysis the accelerated failure time models (A.F.T.) in the Bayesian approach have been used. Our results show, among other things, that difficulties in getting out of long-term unemployment mainly affect women and people who have children or who looked after children directly before the start of their job search. This, in consequence, may deepen the problem of the decrease in labour supply caused by the ageing population
Keywords
ong-term unemployment; ageing population; accelerated failure time models (A.F.T.); Bayesian methods
Hrčak ID:
228819
URI
Publication date:
22.1.2019.
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